000 AXNT20 KNHC 111813 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE DEC 11 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE COASTAL BORDER OF GUINEA AND SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N13W TO 9N18W TO 5N23W 4N30W 5N43W 5N49W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 7N TO THE EAST OF 24W...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 7N TO THE EAST OF 50W. PRECIPITATION THAT IS WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N60W 10N50W 13N40W 17N41W IS MORE RELATED TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SHEAR AXIS THAT IS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENDS NEAR 25N28W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS DISSIPATED... LEAVING DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS BEING SUPPORTED BY THE TROUGH OF 24 HOURS AGO IS MOVING EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD SLOWLY...WITH COMPARATIVELY MUCH LESS DEEP LAYER SUPPORT. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 20N97W AND 20N99W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 20N99W TO 24N101W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 33N76W 29N79W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N87W FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...23N86W 25N84W...WEAKENING BETWEEN 25N84W AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA TO 28N79W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES AS SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 29N79W BEYOND 32N75W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT...AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 23N AS THE INITIAL CONDITION. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...WITH THE FLOW ORIGINATING IN NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 24N75W IN THE BAHAMAS... TO CUBA NEAR 22N79W...INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND THE BORDER OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 8N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO 8N81W IN SOUTHERN PANAMA...BEYOND 8N85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 80W...IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN... NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN COASTAL SECTIONS OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA AND 82W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 82W AND 85W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 17N TO THE EAST OF 80W FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. EXPECT THE COMPARATIVELY HIGHEST SEA HEIGHTS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N23W TO 23N29W 18N48W TO 14N58W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N23W TO 29N27W AND 25N28W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 25N28W TO 20N33W 16N46W 12N52W AND 10N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N60W 10N50W 13N40W 17N41W...AND FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 36W AND 48W...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 48W AND 51W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N54W...TO 30N65W TO CUBA NEAR 22N79W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 26N BETWEEN 35W AND 55W...AS SOME OF THE INITIAL CONDITIONS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT