000 AXNT20 KNHC 302353 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI NOV 30 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...NEAR 25N43W.. HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY TO THE NORTH AT 10-15 KT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THIS SYSTEM ON SATURDAY...IF NECESSARY. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 05N23W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N23W TO 07N33W TO 06N40W TO 09N45W. A 1008 MB LOW IS FURTHER W NEAR 09N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 12W-28W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO E OF TRINIDAD FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN 57W-61W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1030 MB HIGH IS OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA PRODUCING SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. 10-15 KT E-SE SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH IS HOWEVER EMBEDDED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING FROM 26N89W TO 22N86W MOVING SLOWLY W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER S FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF E OF 85W FROM 23N-27N MOVING W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 88W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE GULF W OF 85W. FLORIDA AND THE E GULF E OF 85W HAS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS. A 90 KT JETSTREAM IS ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TO MIAMI FLORIDA. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO SET IN 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN AREA OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HONDURAS...THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 83W-89W. FURTHER S...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 06N-14N BETWEEN 77W-86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER E CUBA...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN W OF 75W S OF 14N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO ADVECT OVER THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N72W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. AN AREA OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS. A SHEARLINE EXTENDS FROM 31N52W TO 26N60W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AT 23N74W. 20-25 KT NE SURFACE WINDS ARE N OF THE SHEARLINE WHILE 10-15 KT NE WINDS ARE S OF THE AXIS. AN ARE OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO N OF HISPANIOLA FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 62W-74W. A SPECIAL FEATURE IS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N43W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 30W-42W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA