000
AXNT20 KNHC 292341
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU NOV 29 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN 
COAST NEAR 07N11W TO 03N20W TO 09N40W TO 08N50W TO 08N57W. A 
1008 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 09N46W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-15N BETWEEN 22W-33W. THIS LARGE 
AREA OF CONVECTION IS LARGELY ENHANCED DUE TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER 
LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 20N40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N79W. 
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS SW TO E TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER 
THE SW GULF FROM 24N98W TO 18N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SCATTERED 
SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. 10-15 KT E WINDS ARE OVER 
THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER 
THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR  
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH OVER THE W GULF... AND FOR SHOWERS TO 
INCREASE OVER THE SE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 19N88W 
TO 16N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH 
AXIS. FURTHER S...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER NICARAGUA 
...COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 06N-13N 
BETWEEN 77W-86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER 
E CUBA...AND HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER 
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N VENEZUELA NEAR 11N69W. 
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS W OF 75W...WHILE STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS E OF 75W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N56W TO 27N63W. A 
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO 25N70W TO THE BAHAMAS AT 22N75W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE 
TROUGH IS N OF HISPANIOLA FROM 24N69W TO 20N71W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240 NM OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH IS 
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 27N47W TO 19N48W. A 1011 MB LOW 
IS EMBEDDED ON THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 21N48W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 
40W-45W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE TROPICS N OF GUYANA  
FROM 12N57W TO 06N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-10N BETWEEN 56W-60W. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE GOING AROUND THE CARIBBEAN HIGH 
W OF 50W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 20N40W ENHANCING THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC TROUGH. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E 
ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 50W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS.   

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA