000 AXNT20 KNHC 282327 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST WED NOV 28 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N30W 9N37W 7N46W 8N54W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA NEAR 8N59W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 18W-23W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 33W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER W TENNESSEE NEAR 36N88W. SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS SW TO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF FROM 23N97W TO 20N95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. 10-15 KT NE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER N MEXICO...AND TEXAS. THE GULF IN UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH SW FLOW. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SURFACE WINDS TO VEER FROM THE EAST...AND FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND MEXICAN COAST. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AT 21N86W TO N NICARAGUA AT 13N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ...BELIZE...AND HONDURAS FROM 14N-21N BETWEEN 80W-89W. FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 80W-85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER CUBA...JAMAICA...AND PUERTO RICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N71W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N66W TO S FLORIDA AT 25N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N48W TO 25N49W TO 21N47W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 42W-48W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE GOING AROUND THE CARIBBEAN HIGH W OF 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 22N45W ENHANCING THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 50W. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION TO PERSIST NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA