000 AXNT20 KNHC 270544 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE NOV 27 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 9N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N23W 8N31W 9N52W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N59W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-11N BETWEEN 13W-30W AND FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 43W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE CARIBBEAN SEA COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO GIVING THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS INLAND OVER TEXAS. THE FRONT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO OVER THE GULF GIVING THE NW GULF RETURN SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ABOVE. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE GULF LATER TONIGHT REACHING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO WED MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN THROUGH LATE WED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL N OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N71W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO OVER THE W ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING ALONG 81W FROM 17N TO PANAMA NEAR 9N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 79W-85W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA. THE FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 16N W OF 80W. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN THE TRADE WINDS THROUGH WED THEN WILL DIMINISH THU THROUGH SAT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN AXIS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N80W AND COVERING THE AREA W OF 60W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA W OF 55W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 31N67W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 24N BETWEEN 36W-60W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS TO 32N40W WHERE IT BECOMES A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 26N44W TO 24N50W THEN DISSIPATES TO 21N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT E OF 46W AND WITHIN 120 NM NW OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 46W-52W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO SUPPORTING A SECOND COLD FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A WEAK 1009 MB LOW IS S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN SAHARA NEAR 27N15W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NE INTO MOROCCO NEAR 29N11W AND SW OF THE LOW TO 22N19W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE LOW. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC N OF 17N BETWEEN 20W-35W. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE CONUS TUE EVENING AND WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH WED NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RE-BUILD BACK ACROSS THE W ATLC AND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW