000 AXNT20 KNHC 260553 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON NOV 26 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N11W CONTINUING TO 5N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N27W TO 2N37W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE N OF 1N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA BETWEEN 2W-6W...FROM 2N TO THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 10W-17W... FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ TO 9N BETWEEN 13W-28W...AND FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 24W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE CARIBBEAN SEA COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO GIVING THE GULF SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC IS SUPPORTING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N84W TO 23N89W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE NE GULF BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. THIS IS GIVING THE NW GULF RETURN SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHES OF FOG BEING REPORTED FROM 26N TO THE COAST OF LOUISIANA/E TEXAS BETWEEN 90W-95W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF EARLY TUE MORNING REACHING FROM S MISSISSIPPI TO NE MEXICO BY TUE EVENING THEN FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO NE MEXICO WED WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT AND PREVAIL THROUGH FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N64W AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH IS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 18N75W TO 12N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE TROUGH N OF 16N. THE FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 15N E OF 75W AND ARE BANKING LOW DENSE LOW CLOUDS WITH SIMILAR ACTIVITY INLAND OVER W PANAMA/COSTA RICA AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST S OF 11N W OF 80W. REMNANT MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES NEAR 21N77W TO THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/ HONDURAS INCLUDING JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 25N BETWEEN 58W-80W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N57W CONTINUING ALONG 27N68W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W. THIS AREA REMAINS DRY...THUS LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA NW OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 29N75W AND A 1022 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC...N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...IS DRAPING A COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N42W CONTINUING TO 26N48W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 22N57W THEN CONTINUING AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO NE OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 19N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE E/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N32W TO 23N45W. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE FAR E ATLC COVERING THE AREA N OF 23N E OF 25W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA SUPPORTING A 1000 MB LOW NEAR 31N18W WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N14W EXTENDING THROUGH THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 22N19W TO 21N27W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 29N BETWEEN 11W-17W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM E OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW