000 AXNT20 KNHC 251142 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN NOV 25 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W TO 03N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N19W TO 02N25W TO 05N46W TO 04N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-12N BETWEEN 20W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC AND INTO THE GULF ALONG 26N81W TO 24N86W WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 24N95W THEN CURVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN MEXICO COAST TO 19N96W. WHILE THE FRONT CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS ALOFT...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT W OF 84W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER LOUISIANA THAT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EASTWARD. CARIBBEAN SEA... MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N65W. MOSTLY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL ALOFT AND AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N72W TO 11N78W THAT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA AND PORTIONS OF PANAMA. OTHERWISE... THE NW CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS AS SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 14N BETWEEN 60W-70W CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS AS WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING PROGRESSES WESTWARD. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 48N69W THAT EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALONG 40N65W TO 32N73W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS FROM 32N65W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 26N80W. WHILE A LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THE FRONT...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD. STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO SLIDE OFF THE SE CONUS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS TO THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION. FARTHER EAST...AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE AFOREMENTIONED PARENT LOW AND TROUGHING...SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N46W TO 25N52W WHERE IT BECOMES A SURFACE TROUGH TO 18N63W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. FINALLY...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 33N18W OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN ATLC THAT SUPPORTS A 1000 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N18W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S-SW FROM THE LOW TO 32N17W TO 27N20W TO 25N28W AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 13W AND THE FRONT...INCLUDING THE MADEIRA ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE CANARY ISLANDS THIS MORNING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN