000 AXNT20 KNHC 250545 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN NOV 25 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO 03N15W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N15W TO 02N22W TO 04N39W TO 02N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-13N BETWEEN 19W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND SEABOARD THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC AND INTO THE GULF ALONG 26N82W TO 24N86W TO 25N93W TO 22N96W. WHILE THE DYNAMICS ALOFT ARE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN...THE FRONT EXHIBITS NO DEEP CONVECTION AT THIS TIME HOWEVER A ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 93W...AND S OF 26N W OF 93W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER WEST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THAT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE FRONT GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE AND DISSIPATES. CARIBBEAN SEA... MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N63W. MOSTLY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL ALOFT AND AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED ALONG A LINE FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W TO 09N82W THAT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA AND PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. OTHERWISE...THE NW CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS AS SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 14N BETWEEN 60W-68W CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS AS WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING PROGRESSING WESTWARD. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 48N72W THAT EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALONG 40N68W TO 32N73W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS FROM 32N69W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N80W. WHILE DEEP CONVECTION IS AT A MINIMUM WITH THE FRONT...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO SLIDE OFF THE SE CONUS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS TO THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION. FARTHER EAST...AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE AFOREMENTIONED PARENT LOW AND TROUGHING...SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N47W TO 19N62W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 37W AND THE FRONT...AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 26N. FINALLY...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 34N21W OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN ATLC THAT SUPPORTS A 1007 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N19W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S-SW FROM THE LOW TO 25N25W AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 10W AND THE FRONT...INCLUDING THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN