000 AXNT20 KNHC 241139 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT NOV 24 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 07N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N20W TO 04N26W TO 05N39W TO 02N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-12N BETWEEN 11W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING...HOWEVER A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE SE CONUS AND GULF COASTAL PLAINS THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N84W SW TO 28N93W WHERE THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 27N97W AND INLAND OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT COUPLED WITH MAXIMUM MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE N OF 23N BETWEEN 93W-100W IS GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NW GULF WATERS N OF 23N BETWEEN 92W-99W. ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 22N99W. ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO 15 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL S OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. AS THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD... NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AND GRADUALLY DECREASE BELOW 20 KT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE SE CONUS AND GULF BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED SE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 11N60W. WHILE THIS CENTER IS EAST OF THE BASIN...MOSTLY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL ALOFT AND AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS IS DUE LARGELY IN PART TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLC NEAR 37N59W THAT DIPS TROUGHING TO THE SW AND OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED ALONG A LINE FROM THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N68W TO 15N75W TO 10N77W THAT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18N68W TO 15N75W TO 10N79W...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. OTHERWISE...THE NW CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS AS SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO SHOW RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 37N59W THAT SUPPORTS A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS ANALYZED INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS. THE EASTERN-MOST COLD FRONT REMAINS IN A DISSIPATING STAGE...HOWEVER HAS THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT AT THIS TIME. THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N54W TO 26N56W TO 19N65W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING N OF 24N BETWEEN 42W AND THE FRONT...AND WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 24N. THE SECONDARY REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 32N58W TO 27N61W TO 22N70W TO 22N76W WITH VERY LITTLE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT. HOWEVER... EXAMINING TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...THE FRONT EXHIBITS A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS TO THE NW OF THE BOUNDARY. FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 36N30W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N23W TO 30N35W THAT BECOMES STATIONARY TO BEYOND 32N41W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE... THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N37W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN