000 AXNT20 KNHC 221146 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU NOV 22 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 10N14W 8N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N15W TO 6N17W 4N22W 5N31W 6N45W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 47W/48W FROM 4N TO 13N. THIS TROUGH SHOWS UP WELL IN SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 40W AND 42W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 47W...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 40W...WITH THE 47W/48W SURFACE TROUGH ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 47W AND 54W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W. THIS FEATURE IS TO THE EAST OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 17N36W 12N40W 8N46W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS... INCLUDING COVERING THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N75W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THAT IS ABOUT 300 NM TO THE EAST OF THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N81W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS BEING PULLED FROM THE U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL STATES NEAR LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTWARD TO AND BEYOND FLORIDA. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N97W IN EAST TEXAS...TO 23N95W IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N96W TO 21N95W TO 18N94W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS AGAINST THE MEXICO COAST...TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 24N98W TO 19N93W. A SURFACE RIDGE CURVES THROUGH LOUISIANA TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...TO COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 19N97W...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. ANOTHER BRANCH OF A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO TO CENTRAL HONDURAS...TO 10N87W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN JUST TO THE WEST OF COSTA RICA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT MARKS THE BOUNDARY OF THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 18N66W ALONG THE SOUTH CENTRAL COAST OF PUERTO RICO...TO 15N69W AND 12N71W IN THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 15N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 20N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 63W AND 70W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...PASSING THROUGH 9N80W IN PANAMA...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 76W AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO PANAMA...AND FROM 5N TO 10N IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 90W. THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS IN THE AREA IS SHEARING THE CLOUD TOPS OF THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 70W AND 80W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE READ THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 15N TO THE WEST OF 81W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...BETWEEN 50W AND THE 29N75W-TO-FLORIDA STRAITS TROUGH. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE AREA. A 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N67W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH...FROM A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY...PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 31N60W TO THE LOW CENTER. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 29N73W AND 31N78W. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 28N66W 26N68W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 70W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 30N TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM 30N53W TO THE MONA PASSAGE. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 27N37W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION REMAINING FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 43W AND 45W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 32W AND 38W...THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N37W TO 30N40W 27N46W. THE FRONT BECOMES DISSIPATING FROM 27N46W TO 24N56W AND 20N64W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N66W 23N60W 26N52W 29N49W 30N47W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N18W TO 27N29W 20N38W TO 19N60W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEAS WITH THE 31N38W 26N50W 19N65W WEAKENING COLD FRONT...20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 13 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS NEAR A 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N67W WITH A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT TO 28N74W 31N78W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT