000 AXNT20 KNHC 220601 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU NOV 22 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 10N14W 8N17W 7N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N21W TO 6N25W 5N34W 6N46W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 12N47W 9N48W 6N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 46W WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...AND ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 47W AND 51W WITH THE 47W/48W SURFACE TROUGH. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W. THIS FEATURE IS TO THE EAST OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 17N36W 12N40W 8N46W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS... INCLUDING COVERING THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N77W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THAT IS ABOUT 215 NM TO THE EAST OF THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N81W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS BEING PULLED FROM THE U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL STATES NEAR LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTWARD TO FLORIDA. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N97W IN EAST TEXAS...TO 23N95W IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N97W TO 19N95W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 24N96W TO 20N94W AND 19N94W. A SURFACE RIDGE CURVES THROUGH LOUISIANA TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...TO COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 19N97W...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. ANOTHER BRANCH OF A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO TO CENTRAL HONDURAS...INTO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...FOR MORE DETAILS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 18N66W ALONG THE SOUTH CENTRAL COAST OF PUERTO RICO...TO 16N69W AND 14N71W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 15N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 20N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 62W AND 70W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N75W IN COLOMBIA...PASSING THROUGH 9N79W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 8N83W IN PANAMA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 79W AND 82W...SCATTERED STRONG IN COLOMBIA FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 73W IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND 75W IN COLOMBIA...AND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 80W AND 89W. THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS IN THE AREA IS SHEARING THE CLOUD TOPS OF THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. PLEASE READ THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 15N TO THE WEST OF 81W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...BETWEEN 50W AND THE 30N77W-TO-FLORIDA STRAITS TROUGH. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH...FROM A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY...PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 31N62W 31N67W 29N73W AND 31N78W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N69W...TO 26N68W 24N72W AND 22N76W...BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 70W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 32N51W 20N72W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N41W TO 27N40W 25N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 44W AND 45W...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO 28N44W. THE FRONT BECOMES DISSIPATING FROM 28N44W TO 26N50W 26N54W AND 20N64W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N64W 21N62W 23N59W 26N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN A 15 TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 19N66W...JUST TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N17W TO 24N33W 20N45W TO 19N60W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEAS WITH THE 31N48W 20N65W COLD FRONT...20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 65W... AND 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 17 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITH A FORECAST COLD FRONT TO BE ALONG 31N65W TO 21N75W IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT