000 AXNT20 KNHC 210605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED NOV 21 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 8N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N17W TO 7N19W 6N28W 5N33W...AND TO 5N52W IN THE FRENCH GUIANA COASTAL WATERS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 7W AND 35W...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 10N TO THE EAST OF 43W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE U.S.A....BETWEEN THE EAST COAST AND 100W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS STILL WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES. THE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...TO ARKANSAS AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. THE 99W UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM 20/1100 UTC HAS FLATTENED OUT CONSIDERABLY. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS IN MEXICO HAS MUCH MORE OF A WELL-DEFINED NORTHWESTERLY-TO- SOUTHEASTERLY ANGLE TO IT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N95W 21N95W 19N92W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 90W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE EAST OF 85W. A SURFACE RIDGE CURVES THROUGH LOUISIANA TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 22N98W...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...ACROSS GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS...INTO NORTHERN NICARAGUA. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...FOR MORE DETAILS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS BETWEEN 70W AND THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE EAST CENTRAL COASTAL SECTIONS OF NICARAGUA. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES THAT ALONG THE EASTERN SHORES OF JAMAICA AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 13N69W 16N66W 18N64W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N76W IN COLOMBIA...PASSING THROUGH 9N80W IN PANAMA...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 76W AND 87W. THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS IN THE AREA IS SHEARING THE CLOUD TOPS OF THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 71W AND 84W. PLEASE READ THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS FROM 11N TO 15N TO THE WEST OF 81W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO 24N62W TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 28N61W 23N66W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N63W 21N65W TO WESTERN PUERTO RICO. A SECOND TROUGH IS ALONG 28N68W 27N72W 28N76W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ALSO APPEARS ALONG 32N63W 31N67W 30N72W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 16N41W TO 12N45W AND 6N51W. IS ALONG 50W FROM 15N TO 22N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. A DEEP LAYER EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N16W TO 29N27W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 29N27W TO 29N36W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 13N TO 27N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEAS WITH THE 31N59W 24N66W COLD FRONT...20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE FROM 27N50W TO 24N42W 23N38W 27N35W...20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT