000 AXNT20 KNHC 191709 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON NOV 19 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 9N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N20W TO 8N40W 7N50W TO THE COAST OF SURINAME NEAR 6N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 12W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER MISSISSIPPI NEAR 32N91W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO AT 21N97W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM 24N89W TO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N85W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ELSEWHERE...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SE OF KEY WEST. 10-20 KT NE TO E WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE SE GULF. SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION REMAINS OVER THE NE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUD IS OVER THE NW GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 10N77W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 75W-82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER GUATEMALA...HONDURAS ...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. 10-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 80W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION AND SHOWERS OVER THE SW AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW ATLANTIC NEAR 30N78W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO THE N BAHAMAS ALONG 29N77W 26N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. 20 KT NW WINDS ARE W OF THE FRONT. ANOTHER 1013 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N70W MOVING NE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N67W TO HISPANIOLA AT 20N71W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 60W-70W. A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 30N23W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE TROPICS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N41W TO 10N49W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 37W-42W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N75W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SE OF THE CENTER N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTRIBUTING TO THE CONVECTION AND SHOWERS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 16N42W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW IS HELPING TO PRODUCE CONVECTION AND SHOWERS. AN OMEGA BLOCK IS NOTED IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC. THUS LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W WITH SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA