000 AXNT20 KNHC 191159 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON NOV 19 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N17W TO 10N20W 8N30W 8N36W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N36W TO 7N34W 8N53W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 19W AND 31W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 1N TO 10N TO THE EAST OF 37W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AND THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N77W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE EASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N78W...PASSING THROUGH 31N78W...PASSING ON TOP OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND CURVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO 25N84W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N88W 23N87W...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 20N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 90W... AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 20N AND TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 84W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 74W. A SURFACE RIDGE CURVES THROUGH SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...INTO NORTHERN NICARAGUA... AND CENTRAL COSTA RICA. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...FOR MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 100W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...PARTLY RELATED TO THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH WITH THE 32N77W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...AND PARTLY RELATED TO THE 100W RIDGE. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS BETWEEN 66W AND THE LINE 16N83W-BEYOND-22N80W. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES THAT PART OF CUBA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 80W...HISPANIOLA...AND THE MONA PASSAGE. MUCH OF THIS WIND REGIME SIMPLY IS RELATED TO THE TROUGH THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 32N77W CYCLONIC CENTER. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 66W. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 8N74W...THROUGH SOUTHERN PANAMA NEAR 8N71W...BEYOND 8N86W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 72W. THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS SHEARING THE CLOUD TOPS THAT ARE IN THIS AREA. SIMILAR WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ALSO IS ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 69W AND 82W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 68W AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 14N TO THE WEST OF 82W FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 23N40W TO A 17N43W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 13N43W 9N43W 7N51W TO 6N59W IN GUYANA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 20N38W 14N42W 10N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 37W AND 44W AND FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 39W AND 41W...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 22N BETWEEN 28W AND 58W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 210 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N51W TO 25N62W 20N68W...IN THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT ORIGINATES IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH SHOWS UP SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA ALONG 16N32W 13N34W 10N34W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 26W AND 34W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N17W TO 27N27W 26N46W 23N59W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 9 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITH THE 31N78W 24N80W COLD FRONT...FOR THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 18N TO 24N BETWEEN 35W AND 47W...AND FOR THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 35W AND 46W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT