000 AXNT20 KNHC 150604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU NOV 15 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 11N15W 9N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N18W TO 7N29W 9N39W AND 8N45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM SIERRA LEONE INTO GUINEA FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 10W AND 14W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 17W AND 21W...FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 24W AND 27W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 10N TO THE EAST OF 40W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS BEEN ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.A. COAST FOR THE LAST DAY OR SO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A...MOVING TO A POSITION THAT IS CLOSE TO BEING IN PHASE WITH THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.A. TROUGH. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH GEORGIA...TO FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE TROUGH IN GENERAL SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 31N78W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N78W TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 28N81W. THE STATIONARY FRONT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE FROM 28N81W TO 27N85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND TO 24N89W 22N95W...AND CURVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TOWARD THE NORTHERN SHORES OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN 90W AND THE MEXICO COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS...TO 23N98W 19N97W...TO THE GULF OF TEHANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...FOR MORE DETAILS. FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N67W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE MONA PASSAGE. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N65W TO 29N66W AND 25N69W. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW CONTINUES THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPILLS INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 21N63W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 17N66W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO COASTAL VENEZUELA NEAR 11N67W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 14N TO PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN 64W AND 70W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS NEAR THE AREA OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT WAS PART OF THE SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS AS LATE AS THE 14/0600 UTC SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 7N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND 81W IN SOUTHERN PANAMA...BEYOND 8N85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 77W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 38N21W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 34N19W 31N20W AND 29N24W. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A 999 MB GALE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 38N20W. A COLD FRONT EMERGES FROM THE 999 MB GALE CENTER...PASSING THROUGH 32N15W...THE WESTERN CANARY ISLANDS TO 26N20W AND 25N27W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 28N33W TO 24N39W 16N40W 8N34W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 19N40W 15N41W 11N42W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 8N TO 24N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 7N TO 15N BETWEEN 41W AND 48W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN THE AREA OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 28W AND 60W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITHIN 240 NM TO THE WEST OF THE 31N65W 25N70W SURFACE TROUGH... THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 10 TO 14 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 40W AND 58W...AND 20 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF 74W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT