000 AXNT20 KNHC 121204 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON NOV 12 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH WESTERN COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 10N17W 6N20W AND 6N25W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N25W TO 11N37W 10N43W 8N55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 12N BETWEEN 17W AND 37W...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 42W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A CENTRAL U.S.A. DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT HAS REACHED THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 90W AND 96W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO... TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL U.S.A. DEEP LAYER TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N80W TO 26N85W...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N78W... ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...TO 29N85W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO NORTHERN NICARAGUA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN SURFACE RETURN WIND FLOW... TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 90W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 90W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE WEST OF THE 29N92W 26N97W COLD FRONT FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 23N TO 25N TO THE EAST OF 87W. FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS PASSES THROUGH 32N58W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 29N65W 27N68W...TO A 22N74W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ON TOP OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 22N74W TO JAMAICA...INTO THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA. A SHEAR AXIS IS ALONG 31N51W 24N60W 20N64W...ACROSS PUERTO RICO...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 14N72W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N47W 26N60W...FROM THE NORTHERN SHORES OF THE GREATER ANTILLES TO 26N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 19N64W 16N63W 13N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 9N...BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 86W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 77W AND THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 75W FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 22N38W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 18N37W AND 10N32W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 38W FROM 20N TO 31N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IS FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 30W AND 34W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 30W AND 37W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 17N46W 14N47W 10N48W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 41W AND 50W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N78W... ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...TO 29N85W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 30 WINDS TO THE WEST OF 31N51W 19N66W AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS... AND THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITH THE 38W SURFACE TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT