000 AXNT20 KNHC 110527 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN NOV 11 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W ALONG 10N26W TO 14N38W THEN RESUMES NEAR 13N45W 10N54W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N61W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-17N BETWEEN 10W-24W INCLUDING THE COAST OF W AFRICA...FROM 7N-20N BETWEEN 24W-32W... AND FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 32W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS S MEXICO AND THE GULF TO OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DRY CONTINENTAL AIR REMAINS OVER THE FAR E GULF WHILE TROPICAL MOISTURE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND A 1031 MB HIGH OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST. SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF. SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH SUN. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF MON MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM MISSISSIPPI TO VERACRUZ MEXICO MON NIGHT FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE MORNING BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF WED MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE ON THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES TO OVER PANAMA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE W ATLC. FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN USHERING IN SOME LOW LEVEL SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY S OF 17N BETWEEN 76W-84W AND S OF 14N BETWEEN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND 68W. TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH MON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. MODERATE NE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W AND EXTENDS S ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N50W CONTINUING ALONG 28N54W TO 24N60W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 18N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED SE OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 22N60W TO 16N59W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 23N55W TO 21N60W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 20N59W TO 12N53W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC W OF THE ABOVE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA AND A 1031 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF NEW JERSEY. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 24N39W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S INTO THE TROPICS NEAR 15N36W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 23N41W TO 15N42W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL TO THE E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 17N-28N BETWEEN 30W-38W. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH ABOUT 150 NM SW OF THE AZORES. THE CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY THEN WILL DEGENERATE INTO A SHEAR LINE TONIGHT STALLING THROUGH SUN. A TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG ITS AXIS DRIFTING W MON THROUGH WED AND DISSIPATING THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW