000 AXNT20 KNHC 081203 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU NOV 08 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH GAMBIA NEAR 13N16W TO 10N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N17W TO 8N18W 6N30W 6N40W...AND 6N51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 11N TO THE EAST OF 42W... AND FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 59W AND 60W...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 56W AND 59W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS...ACROSS CUBA...BEYOND 32N65W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TOWARD BERMUDA IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS OBSERVED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NEAR 40N71W OFF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SPINNING THROUGH THE LARGER-SCALE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...PASSING THROUGH 33N79W TO 27N81W AND 25N83W. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A SLOWLY-MOVING COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO 30N68W. THE FRONT STARTS TO DISSIPATE FROM 30N68W TO 24N75W IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA... TO THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL YUCATAN PENINSULA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 50W AND 71W...AND FROM 21N TO 22N BETWEEN 69W AND 71W. COLD AIR STRATIFORM CLOUDS ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 96W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N95W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO...ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...FOR MORE DETAILS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS AT 48 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 87W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 62W AND 65W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N/9N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 74W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 48 HOUR FORECAST...TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 74W... AND FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W...EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... ONE SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 33W/34W FROM 17N BEYOND 32N. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO 27N51W 22N60W AND 16N66W IN THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N19W TO 25N25W TO 16N32W 12N37W AND 9N43W. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 28N41W TO 23N38W AND 17N35W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N44W 22N46W 18N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 30W AND 35W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 40W AND 42W...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 25N BETWEEN 29W AND 38W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 40W...ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF A LINE FROM 31N48W TO 22N47W TO 11N40W WITH 20 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS. PLEASE REVIEW THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS TO BE RELATED TO A COLD FRONT FROM 31N67W TO 25N71W TO 22N77W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT