000 AXNT20 KNHC 062349 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST TUE NOV 06 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 09N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N19W TO 06N30W TO 09N46W TO 06N55W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-11N BETWEEN 36W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF WITH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS DOMINATING OVER THE WESTERN GULF THIS EVENING. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT AS OF 06/2100 UTC ANALYZED ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM CAPE CANAVERAL TO THE TAMPA BAY REGION AND ALONG 28N83W TO 25N90W TO 25N96W. THE FRONT REMAINS FAIRLY PRECIPITATION FREE ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN THE SE GULF FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 81W-86W. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE RELATIVELY CLEAR AS A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS SETTLES IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN OVER THE GULF THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PRIMARILY NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 15N67W OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS INFLUENCE AS FAR WEST AS 90W. THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS INFLUENCED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WHICH ARE ADVECTING MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD AND GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 78W-88W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CUBA. FARTHER EAST...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOST OF THE BASIN E OF 75W IS UNDER FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ALOFT THIS EVENING WITH SKIES REMAINING RELATIVELY CLEAR. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DOMINATES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN AND LOCATED OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N76W SW TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL AND INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. WITH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS... WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WEST OF A LINE FROM 32N70W TO 26N80W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER A MUCH LARGER AREA N OF 21N BETWEEN 54W-78W IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N67W AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. FARTHER EAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 42N29W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 22N-27N ALONG 48W AND REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGING. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 39W-45W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. FINALLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE IBERIAN PENINSULA NEAR 40N13W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT DRAPED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 31N10W TO 25N25W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE N OF 26N E OF 20W WITH THE FRONT...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN