000 AXNT20 KNHC 052344 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON NOV 05 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W TO 11N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N21W TO 08N28W TO 06N55W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-11N BETWEEN 38W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF THIS EVENING WITH A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL LOW PROGRESSING E-SE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. CURRENTLY A LINGERING SLOW-MOVING AND NEARLY STALLED COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF FROM THE TAMPA BAY REGION WESTWARD TO 27N90W. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES AND DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SE CONUS. WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE FORECAST N OF 26N BY LATE TUESDAY. OTHERWISE... GLOBAL MODEL DATA INDICATES A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET LIES ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WHICH IS RESULTING IN BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 27N82W TO 22N98W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS AREA OF INCREASED CLOUDINESS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 14N81W OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS INFLUENCE AS FAR EAST AS 60W. W OF 80W...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE ADVECTING MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD AND GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 81W-88W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO OCCURRING OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS DUE TO THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT. FARTHER TO THE EAST UNDER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE... MOSTLY NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT DOMINATE AND ACCORDING TO WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ARE PROVIDING A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE FOR HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. WHILE OVERALL SKIES REMAIN FAIR E OF 75W...A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING N OF 17N E OF 68W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 60W THIS EVENING BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE OVERALL TROUGHING... ONE EXITING WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA NEAR 40N69W AND THE OTHER PROGRESSING E-SE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERNMOST SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG 32N74W TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA COAST NEAR 28N81W. THE FRONT REMAINS FAIRLY PRECIPITATION FREE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING N OF 31N. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SE CONUS DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. GLOBAL MODEL DATA INDICATES CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS BY TUESDAY WITH USHERING IN A NEW COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THE REGION. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED NEAR 30N52W AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N52W TO 31N54W THAT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 28N60W. THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS OVERALL SYNOPTIC-SCALE SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-65W. FINALLY...OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM OVER NW PORTUGAL NEAR 44N10W TO 23N32W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N16W TO 26N29W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN