000
AXNT20 KNHC 031710
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT NOV 03 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 11N14W TO 6N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES 
ALONG 4N32W TO 10N49W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N59W. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-8N 
BETWEEN 11W-15W AND FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 18N-27W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM N OF THE 
ITCZ BETWEEN 48W-56W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO 
NEAR 27N88W. FAIR WEATHER AND 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS 
ARE NOTED AROUND THE HIGH. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS 
OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AS WELL AS OVER THE W GULF N OF 
24N W OF 93W. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 
21N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS WITH BROKEN HIGH 
CLOUD AND CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS 
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N82W. A 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N82W TO THE LOW CENTER TO 8N82W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 
78W-84W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER N FROM 
14N-18N BETWEEN 79W-83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL 
AMERICA FROM BELIZE TO PANAMA. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS 
SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO N OF 18N 
BETWEEN 64W-70W. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E 
OF 63W. 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH 
STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N79W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER 
THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 78W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N58W TO 
26N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A 
SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER S FROM 25N61W TO N HISPANIOLA AT 
20N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1004 
MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N28W. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N W 
OF 60W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 50W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL 
LOW IS ALSO CENTERED NEAR 20N30W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF 
THE LOW IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 
90 NM OF A LINE FROM 24N24W TO 15N32W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS N OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO... 
AND E OF THE WINDWARD ISLAND. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA