000 AXNT20 KNHC 021143 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI NOV 02 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... NO MONSOON TROUGH AND NO ITCZ EXIST AT THE MOMENT BECAUSE OF LARGE-SCALE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 16W AND 17W...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 27N84W INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE SPANS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES FROM MEXICO AND TEXAS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...REACHING 87W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA... INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N90W. A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS TO THE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT NEAR 28N91W. A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT NEAR 24N89W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 18N60W...BEYOND 32N56W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF NICARAGUA/EASTERN HONDURAS. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA...THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CUBA-TO-THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS COASTAL BORDER AREA. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN PROMINENT FOR AT LEAST THE LAST 24 HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES THROUGH 77W/78W FROM 10N TO 16N... IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO JAMAICA BETWEEN 75W AND THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE POSITION OF THIS TROUGH SHOWED UP WELL IN THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N BETWEEN 74W AND 86W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W IN COLOMBIA AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA...AND FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 79W AND 80W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 80W AND THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...TO 26N90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N63W TO 28N70W AND 26N76W. BROAD DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...SUPPORTING THE FRONTS AND SURFACE TROUGH. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N32W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 19N36W AND 13N39W. A 997 MB GALE CENTER IS NEAR 31N32W. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES AWAY FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 24N37W 23N49W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT CURVES AWAY FROM THE LOW CENTER...TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA OF THIS BULLETIN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ABOUT 500 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE GALE LOW CENTER AND TROUGH...ALONG 28N22W 20N29W 12N39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N20W 16N27W...AND WITHIN 300 TO 400 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 16N27W 8N34W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO...FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE RELATED TO THE 31N71W 27N80W COLD FRONT. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST HAS TO DO WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 12 TO 14 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 42W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT