000 AXNT20 KNHC 020605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI NOV 02 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... NO MONSOON TROUGH AND NO ITCZ EXIST AT THE MOMENT BECAUSE OF LARGE-SCALE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 21W...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 26N85W INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE SPANS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES FROM MEXICO AND TEXAS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF 90W. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE U.S.A. EAST COAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N63W 25N74W BEYOND 22N80W IN CUBA...TO 19N87W AT THE EAST CENTRAL COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N90W. A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS TO THE NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 28N92W. A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT NEAR 24N88W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 18N60W...BEYOND 32N56W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF NICARAGUA/EASTERN HONDURAS. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA...THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CUBA-TO-THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS COASTAL BORDER AREA. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN PROMINENT FOR AT LEAST THE LAST 24 HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 17N79W TO 12N81W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N75W 15N77W 12N81W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N75W 11N80W...CURVING THROUGH WESTERN COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W IN COLOMBIA AND EXTREME EASTERN PANAMA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N71W TO 31N72W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N72W...TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 28N81W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N90W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 29N69W AND 27N76W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N59W 25N65W 20N73W. BROAD DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...SUPPORTING THE FRONTS AND SURFACE TROUGH. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N32W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 25N34W AND 20N35W...TO 15N39W. A 997 MB GALE CENTER IS NEAR 30N33W. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES AWAY FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 25N36W 23N43W AND 23N50W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT CURVES AWAY FROM THE LOW CENTER...TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA OF THIS BULLETIN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 24W AND 32W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ABOUT 500 NM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE GALE LOW CENTER AND TROUGH...ALONG 29N22W 20N29W 12N38W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 16W AND 21W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N23W 18N29W 14N35W...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 13N BETWEEN 30W AND 41W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO...FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE RELATED TO THE 31N74W 28N81W COLD FRONT. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST HAS TO DO WITH THE 997 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT STARTS NEAR 30N33W...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA 24 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT