000 AXNT20 KNHC 020001 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU NOV 01 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THERE IS NO MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ AXIS ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN. THERE IS A BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC IMPEDING BOTH THE TROUGH AND ITCZ. DEEP MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA TO THE CANARY ISLANDS AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 22W-27W INCLUDING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 33W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CONUS E OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE W ATLC AND S OVER THE GULF SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC THEN BECOMES STATIONARY BEFORE CROSSING FLORIDA BETWEEN VERO BEACH TO TAMPA INTO THE GULF TO NEAR 27N89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 24N90W. A SECOND AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 90W-96W. DRY UPPER AIR REMAINS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT NW TONIGHT ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SE AND PASS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA LATE FRI. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT S SUN NIGHT ALLOWING A COLD FRONT CLIP THE N GULF ON MON. CARIBBEAN SEA... SW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND COUPLED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM S OF JAMAICA NEAR 17N77W TO 11N79W IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS CUBA AND HAITI NEAR 20N75W TO 14N78W AND FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 76W-83W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W ALONG 10N80W CROSSING COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 10N84W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 10N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA. A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE W/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL DRIFT W TUE WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEAR 11N ALONG THE TROUGH THIS WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 70W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER BERMUDA ALONG 28N72W TO 27N68W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY THEN CROSSES FLORIDA NEAR VERO BEACH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE E OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N59W ALONG 24N66W TO JUST N OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS N ALONG 59W TO BEYOND 32N AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 24N68W TO ACROSS CUBA AND HAITI NEAR 20N74W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED IN THE E ATLC NEAR 30N33W SUPPORTING A COMPLEX SYSTEM N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A 995 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 30N34W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW ALONG 20N40W TO 17N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 26N BETWEEN 25W-34W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE E EXTENDING FROM 29N25W ALONG 21N29W TO 14N35W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150/180 NM E OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE E THROUGH FRI. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT E REACHING FROM 32N62W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH FRI THEN BE FORCED SE AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CLIP THE W ATLC SAT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W ATLC TONIGHT AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA LATE FRI AND MERGE WITH REMNANTS OF THE PREVIOUS FRONTS ALONG A LINE FROM 32N59W TO THE E DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATE SAT. THE GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E ON SUN. THE HIGH WILL MOVE NE PASSING BERMUDA MON NIGHT WITH A RIDGE SW TO SE FLORIDA AND ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE W ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW