000 AXNT20 KNHC 011707 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU NOV 01 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... ONLY A SMALL PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER WATER FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA AT 10N14W TO 9N18W. THE AXIS DOES NOT CONTINUE ANY FURTHER WEST DUE TO A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NW AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL REGION. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 26W-33W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 35W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY EXTENDING FROM THE NE CONUS. DRY AIR IS WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH HELPING PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF ALONG 27N80W TO 28N89W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM SOUTH OF THE AXIS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT DEPICTING ANOTHER WIND SHIFT AROUND THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN CENTERED AROUND A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 24N88W. THE ONLY OTHER ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE AREA IS A PATCH OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF TEXAS FROM 25N-26N BETWEEN 95W-98W. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN ACROSS THE GULF WHILE THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE SOUTH. SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MODERATELY MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE EASTERN CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH STILL REMAINS FROM JAMAICA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 18N77W TO 11N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM WEST OF THE AXIS AS WELL AS FROM JAMAICA TO EASTERN CUBA. SIMILAR ACTIVITY COVERS THE EXTREME SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 76W-84W ENHANCED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN COSTA RICA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT MOVING OVER THE AREA AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN 10-15 KT TRADEWIND FLOW. SOME STRONG WINDS UP TO 20 KT ARE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. MOIST CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND SPREAD WEST AS THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE THAT AREA DRIFTS WESTWARD. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW IS STILL PRESENT ACROSS THE WEST ATLC AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. SEVERAL SURGES OF ENERGY ARE MOVING AROUND THE SYSTEM. FARTHEST WEST...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N79W TO THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N68W AND CONTINUES TO JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS AT 28N79W. FINALLY...A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE EAST ALONG 30N58W 24N64W 20N72W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THIS EASTERNMOST TROUGH IN THE AREA WHERE TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN TO THE NE FROM THE CARIBBEAN. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN CONUS AND FAR WESTERN ATLC SUPPORTING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NE UNITED STATES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 60W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED IN THIS AREA. ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 31N34W CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A 995 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 30N36W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TOWARDS THE SW ALONG 24N40W 23N48W DEPICTED A WIND SHIFT AROUND THE LOW. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS FARTHER EAST...REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG 23N28W TO 13N37W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO THE NORTH FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 19W-28W...AND TO THE EAST FROM 12N-23N BETWEEN 22W-27W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE FAR EASTERN ATLC SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST ATLC...WHICH HAS AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS INTO THE DEEP TROPICS PREVENTING THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ FROM FORMING WEST OF AFRICA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON