000 AXNT20 KNHC 290603 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY AT 29/0600 UTC IS NEAR 35.2N 70.5W. SANDY IS ABOUT 245 NM TO THE EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN NORTH CAROLINA...AND ABOUT 370 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW YORK CITY. SANDY IS MOVING NORTHWARD 12 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 65 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 34N TO 36N BETWEEN 69W AND 72W...AND FROM 33N TO 37N BETWEEN 71W AND 76W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN OF LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 25N TO 41N BETWEEN 59W AND 81W IN SOUTH CAROLINA... IN A CLOSED 1004 MB ISOBAR. A WARM FRONT IS ALONG 36N72W TO 33N62W 28N55W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 7N17W AND 7N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N22W TO 7N34W 6N38W AND 7N41W...FROM 6N42W TO 7N52W AND 6N56W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 51W...AND FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 35W AND 47W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 13N41W 8N43W 3N42W...BREAKING UP THE ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THIS PATTERN IS TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT SURROUNDS HURRICANE SANDY...IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN MOVING FROM MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...MIXING WITH THE EARLIER COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE THAT HAS BEEN SPANNING THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE LAST 48 HOURS OR SO. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT ENGULFS HURRICANE SANDY AT THE MOMENT SUPPORTS A SLOWLY-MOVING COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N77W...BETWEEN GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND FLORIDA...ACROSS CUBA NEAR 23N80W...TO THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A DEFINITE BREAK EXISTS IN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE STATIONARY FRONT STARTS NEAR 17N86W AND IT CURVES NORTHWESTWARD TO 24N100W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO 19N96W IN COASTAL MEXICO...TO 15N87W IN HONDURAS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT ENGULFS HURRICANE SANDY PASSES THROUGH 32N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS JAMAICA...TO 15N79W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 20N70W TO 16N76W TO 10N80W AT THE PANAMA COAST. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE EAST OF THE LINE OF COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR...20N70W 10N80W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 69W AND 70W AND FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 73W IN THE WATERS JUST OFF THE COASTS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA...AND IN COLOMBIA WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS OF 8N76W. THE PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH...THAT IS ALONG 13N73W 7N77W 3N79W. THE TROUGH SPANS THE AREA FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA...INTO COLOMBIA...TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF COLOMBIA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 35N39W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 26N40W. NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN AND 50W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO 26N43W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 33W AND 38W AND FROM 25N TO 32N BETWEEN 25W AND 33W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 20W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE AREA FROM 19N TO 24N BETWEEN 53W AND 65W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT SURROUNDS HURRICANE SANDY...AND UNDER THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 20N54W. A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 23N23W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 11N TO 28N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 31W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT HURRICANE SANDY. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST HAS TO DO WITH A 991 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N41W AT THE START OF THE FORECAST...MOVING TO 991 MB NEAR 36N37W AT 24 HOURS... AND MOVING TO 993 MB NEAR 34.5N 32.5W AT 48 HOURS. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 14 FEET IN AREAS AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT