000 AXNT20 KNHC 290007 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY AT 28/2100 UTC IS NEAR 33.4N 71.3W. SANDY IS ABOUT 235 NM TO THE ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA...AND ABOUT 461 NM TO THE SSE OF NEW YORK CITY. SANDY IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD 13 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 65 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CENTER FROM 32N-35N BETWEEN 71W-73W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE W OF THE CENTER FROM 31N-39N BETWEEN 73W-77W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 7N18W TO 7N27W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 7N27W TO 9N39W TO 5N46W TO GUYANA AT 6N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 18W-25W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 28W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR 33N98W. 15-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS COVERS MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO W CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 25N90W 23N81W TO 21N83W TO 20N91W TO 18N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 90W-98W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ELSEWHERE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...RESIDUAL SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N...AND FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN MENTIONED ABOVE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AS A CLOUD LINE WITH NO CONVECTION. SURFACE WINDS N OF THE FRONT OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ARE FROM THE NORTH AT 25 KT. 10 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ALSO EXTEND ALL THE WAY TO PANAMA W OF 80W. ELSEWHERE...15 KT WESTERLY WINDS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...WHILE 10 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. THE TRADEWINDS ARE THUS COMPLETELY DISRUPTED. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO REACH NICARAGUA IN 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO BE OVER PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... HURRICANE SANDY IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA COAST. SEE ABOVE. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER A LARGE EXTENT OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ELSEWHERE... A STATIONARY FRONT IS OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 31N79W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 25N90W. TROPICAL STORM WINDS ARE STILL OVER THE W ATLANTIC S OF SANDY FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 66W-76W. A WARM EXTENDS FROM 28N55W TO BEYOND 31N60W. A 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 22N25W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 27W-35W DUE TO SURFACE CONFLUENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. EXPECT...THE WINDS TO BE LESS THAN TROPICAL STORM FORCE WITHIN 18 HOURS...SOUTH OF 32N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA