000 AXNT20 KNHC 281206 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY AT 28/1200 UTC IS NEAR 32.1N 73.1W. SANDY IS ABOUT 225 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA...AND ABOUT 345 NM TO THE SOUTH OF NEW YORK CITY. SANDY IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD 9 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 951 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 65 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 29N TO 36N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN OF LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE BAHAMAS FROM 24N TO 38N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 61W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 81W IN FLORIDA...IN A CLOSED 1004 MB ISOBAR. A WARM FRONT IS ALONG 33N74W TO 31N63W TO 26N47W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 20W AND 50W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COLLIDES WITH UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 35W AND 50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 9N TO 19N BETWEEN 36W AND 48W. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE RELATED TO THE ITCZ. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF WESTERN GUINEA NEAR 12N16W TO 8N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N23W TO 7N30W 6N38W AND 6N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED STRONG FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 11W AND 18W AND FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 33W AND 38W...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 33W...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THIS PATTERN IS TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT SURROUNDS HURRICANE SANDY...IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE SPANS THE AREA. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT ENGULFS HURRICANE SANDY AT THE MOMENT SUPPORTS A SLOWLY-MOVING COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N87W TO 23N93W... INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 18N96W AND 19N98W IN MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES IN MEXICO FROM 19N98W TO 25N101W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO 19N96W IN COASTAL MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE CURRENT COLD FRONT...WITH AREAS OF 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 93W...AND AREAS OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 90W. A THIRD POINT OF CONCERN IS 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE EAST OF 85W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AND THEN THEY ARE FORECAST TO MERGE WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT ENGULFS HURRICANE SANDY PASSES THROUGH 27N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N79W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 17N79W INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 12N80W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 20N70W TO 10N80W. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE EAST OF THE LINE OF COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR...20N70W 10N79W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 71W AND 74W FROM LAKE MARACAIBO OF NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. THE PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH...THAT MOSTLY IS IN VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 37N47W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 34N40W 34N28W. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 20W AND 50W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT CURVES THROUGH 31N31W TO 26N40W 26N47W. A WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH 26N47W 32N66W TO 26N47W. THE WARM FRONT ULTIMATELY EXTENDS AWAY FROM THE AREA OF HURRICANE SANDY...AND IT REACHES 26N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 21N TO 27N BETWEEN 50W AND 65W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 66W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 20W AND 32W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N21W TO 31N16W. A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 21N25W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 27N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 37W. A 1012 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 19N55W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 11N TO 25N BETWEEN 46W AND 60W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT HURRICANE SANDY. A COLD FRONT THAT WILL COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 26N TO 32N BETWEEN 35W AND 54W. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 13 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS AROUND THE COLD FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT