000 AXNT20 KNHC 280558 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY AT 28/0600 UTC IS NEAR 31.5N 73.7W. SANDY IS ABOUT 330 NM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA...AND ABOUT 240 NM TO THE SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN NORTH CAROLINA. SANDY IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD 12 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 65 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 30N TO 34N BETWEEN 70W AND 79W...SCATTERED STRONG ABOUT 800 NM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF SANDY FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 57W AND 64W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN OF LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N TO 37N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 62W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 82W IN FLORIDA... IN A CLOSED 1008 MB ISOBAR. A WARM FRONT IS ALONG 33N74W TO 32N68W TO 29N57W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 20W AND 50W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COLLIDES WITH UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 35W AND 50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO 20N BETWEEN 37W AND 47W. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE RELATED TO THE ITCZ. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL AND WESTERN GUINEA TO 8N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N22W TO 8N32W AND 9N39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 10W AND 17W AND FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 34W AND 38W...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 34W...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THIS PATTERN IS TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT SURROUNDS HURRICANE SANDY...IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE SPANS THE AREA. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT ENGULFS HURRICANE SANDY AT THE MOMENT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W... INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N87W TO 23N93W...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 18N96W AND 20N98W IN MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES IN MEXICO FROM 20N98W TO 25N101W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO 20N97W IN COASTAL MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS THE GALE WARNING... FROM 22N TO 26N TO THE WEST OF 95W...SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 9 TO 13 FEET FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS IN AREAS AROUND THE CURRENT COLD FRONT. A THIRD POINT OF CONCERN IS 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE EAST OF THE LINE 30N85W 26N85W 23N83W...12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AND THEN THEY ARE FORECAST TO MERGE WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT ENGULFS HURRICANE SANDY PASSES THROUGH 26N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N80W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 18N80W INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 11N81W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 20N70W TO 10N80W. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE EAST OF THE LINE OF COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR...20N70W 10N80W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 61W AND 62W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 19N TO THE EAST OF 76W INCLUDING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 38N48W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 34N36W 32N28W. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 20W AND 50W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT CURVES THROUGH 32N34W 29N35W 26N40W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 26N40W TO 29N57W. THE EASTERNMOST POINT OF THE WARM FRONT THAT ORIGINATES TO THE NORTH OF HURRICANE SANDY IS 29N57W. SCATTERED STRONG ABOUT 800 NM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF SANDY FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 57W AND 64W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 66W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 20W AND 32W... AND FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 53W AND 57W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR\ 32N21W TO 31N18W. A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 22N27W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 14N TO 28N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 36W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT HURRICANE SANDY. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST RELATES TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 27N TO 32N BETWEEN 35W AND 60W. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 14 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS AROUND THE COLD FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT