000 AXNT20 KNHC 261804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE SANDY IS CENTERED NEAR 27.1N 77.1W AT 26/1800 UTC OR ABOUT 25 NM NNE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND AND ABOUT 375 NM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MOVING N AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE LARGE AND STRONG CONVECTIVE BURST NEAR THE CENTER OF THE STORM HAS MAINLY DISSIPATED...BUT A LARGE AREA OF ACTIVITY STILL EXISTS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE CENTER FROM 28N-34N BETWEEN 64W-81W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 20N-28N BETWEEN 65W-71W. ONE OF THE OUTER BANDS ALSO EXTENDS ALL THE WAY INTO THE CARIBBEAN WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 69W-75W. HISPANIOLA IS EXPERIENCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AT THIS TIME...WHICH COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N42W TO 11N42W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. AN ASCAT PASS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING ALSO INDICATES THAT CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. STRONG WINDS UP TO 25 KT WERE ALSO OBSERVED IN THE PASS EAST OF THE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 34W-38W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 38W-43W TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N49W TO 11N48W MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SAME BROAD AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE THAT THE WAVE TO THE EAST IS WITHIN. IT APPEARS THAT THE ENERGY FROM THE TWO WAVES MAY BE MERGING...BUT AT THIS TIME THEY REMAIN SEPARATE. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW CAN BE SEEN DISTINCTIVELY AROUND THIS WAVE...AS WELL AS THE ONE TO THE EAST. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 48W-51W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF GUINEA AT 11N15W TO 10N19W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 10N19W AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N26W 5N31W 6N37W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 23W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE CIRCULATION AROUND HURRICANE SANDY CONTINUES TO BRING WIND AND RAIN TO FLORIDA AND THE EXTREME SE GULF OF MEXICO. MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTEND DOWN THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS WITH SOME AREAS OF MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY WITH HEAVIER RAIN. THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPERIENCING FAIR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW LOW-LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE EASTERN GULF ALONG 86W WITH DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND ITS WEST SIDE...WHICH IS HELPING SUPPORT THE FAIR CONDITIONS. A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE CENTRAL CONUS SUPPORTS A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEGUN TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE NW GULF. AS OF 1500 UTC...THE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER TO SE TEXAS NEAR 27N97W. ONLY A FEW VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MORE ACTIVITY STILL INLAND. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE ACROSS THE SE GULF AND SOUTH FLORIDA AS SANDY MOVES NORTH. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE BASIN WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE AXIS. CARIBBEAN SEA... EVEN THOUGH HURRICANE SANDY IS NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN...THE WEATHER PATTERN IS STILL BEING DOMINATED BY THE STORM AS BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH WINDS UP TO 20 KT STILL PRESENT. AN OUTER RAINBAND IS IMPACTING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN TO HISPANIOLA. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS HITTING HISPANIOLA AND THE RISK FOR FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IS HIGH. THE ISLAND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO RECEIVE HEAVY RAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS CUBA AND PUERTO RICO TO EITHER SIDE. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN HAS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TO THE WEST...DRY AIR ALOFT IS WRAPPING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EASTERN GULF...WHICH IS PROVIDING THE FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. TO THE EAST...DRY AIR IS WRAPPING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT COVERS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN AND EXTENDS IN TO THE CENTRAL ATLC. THIS DRY AIR IS KEEPING THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... HURRICANE SANDY CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEST ATLC PRODUCING A LARGE WIND FIELD AND A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF THE STORM EXTENDS EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN COVERING MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ATLC. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW COVERS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLC N OF 25N SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT BARELY SKIRTS THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N47W 31N53W 31N62W. FARTHER EAST...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N41W TO 23N46W. AN UPPER LEVEL JET AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS AT THE SURFACE FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 34W-60W. A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM A WEAK 1006 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 32N29W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 27N32W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 23N37W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND UP TO 160 NM EAST OF THE AXIS. A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH COVERS THE FAR EASTERN GULF CENTERED NEAR 25N24W PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS AREA. HURRICANE SANDY WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN ATLC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON