000 AXNT20 KNHC 250006 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY AT 25/0000 UTC IS NEAR 18.7N 76.4W. SANDY IS ABOUT 52 NM NNE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA... AND ABOUT 100 NM TO THE SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. SANDY IS MOVING NORTHWARD 12 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 968 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED ARE 75 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 90 KNOTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC..AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA...SEVERAL CUBAN PROVINCES...THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER E JAMAICA FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 75W-78W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 14N-22N BETWEEN 67W-79W. SANDY HAS TRAVERSED OVER EASTERN JAMAICA. NEXT ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA OVERNIGHT...MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TONY AT 24/2100 UTC IS NEAR 29.6N 42.5W. TONY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST 22 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/ WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 29N-33N BETWEEN 39W-44W. TONY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL TONIGHT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N36W TO 9N32W W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AROUND THE WAVE...WITH A TILT TOWARDS THE NW. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N41W TO 7N44W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AROUND THE WAVE...WITH A TILT TOWARDS THE NE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 9N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N16W TO 9N30W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-14N BETWEEN 20W-25W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS RESUMES AGAIN W OF THE TROPICAL WAVES AT 9N46W TO 9N50W TO 11N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 21W-30W...AND FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 45W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N83W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND S FLORIDA FROM 23N-27N E OF 83W... DUE TO THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF SANDY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. 20 KT NE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE E GULF...WHILE 5-10 KT VARIABLE WINDS ARE OVER THE E GULF W OF 90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 85W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY TO ADVECT OVER S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... SANDY HAS TRAVERSED EASTERN JAMAICA AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. SEE ABOVE. HEAVY RAINFALL OVER JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...AND HISPANIOLA MAY RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. STORM SURGE WILL ALSO REMAIN A KEY IMPACT FOR THE ISLANDS. BROAD CYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS COVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. ON THE SHORT TERM...EXPECT SANDY TO REINTENSIFY AND MOVE NORTH TOWARDS E CUBA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N73W. FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOW OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS DUE TO SANDY. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE S OF 30N W OF 65W DUE TO SANDY. T.S. TONY IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. TONY IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF COOLER WATERS...AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BE COMPLETE TONIGHT. A 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC AT 26N30W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA