000 AXNT20 KNHC 240605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM SANDY IS CENTERED NEAR 15.7N 77.1W AT 24/0600 UTC OR ABOUT ABOUT 140 NM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 275 NM S-SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MOVING N-NE AT 9 KT. HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 11N81W TO 13N76W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN 70W-78W AND FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 67W-70W. TROPICAL STORM SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND E CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM TONY AT 24/0300 UTC. TROPICAL STORM TONY IS CENTERED NEAR 26.7N 49.2W AT 24/0300 OR ABOUT 1310 NM W-SW OF THE AZORES MOVING NE AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/ WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 27N51W TO 28N45W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 16N33W TO A WEAK 1009 MB LOW NEAR 7N30W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN WAVE AND 34W AND 13N-15N BETWEEN 30W-33W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 16N41W TO 8N40W DRIFTING W. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM W AFRICA INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC HINDERING TRACKING OF THIS WAVE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST NEAR 11N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS CONTINUING ALONG 8N22W TO 8N28W... IT RESUMES NEAR 8N32W ALONG 10N36W TO 10N39W...IT RESUMES AGAIN NEAR 8N41W ALONG 8N43W 10N50W TO 10N57W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 16W-28W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 46W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS SW MEXICO OVER THE W GULF TO 90W WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE E GULF FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ACROSS W CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. DRY CONTINENTAL AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF AGAIN TONIGHT. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N BETWEEN 91W-93W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT E THROUGH SUN. TROPICAL STORM SANDY WILL MOVE N ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS CAUSING FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS ACROSS STRAITS OF FLORIDA TONIGHT EXPANDING INTO E GULF THROUGH FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE PRIMARY CONCERN AGAIN TONIGHT IS TROPICAL STORM SANDY IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS CUBA OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N83W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-21N W OF 79W INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL STORM SANDY. TROPICAL STORM SANDY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO HURRICANE AND REACH BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA LATE WED CROSSING E CUBA WED NIGHT WHERE IT LOSES STRENGTH BACK TO TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE W ATLC. ATLANTIC OCEAN... NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM TONY IS A CONCERN TONIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL ATLC...PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN COVERS THE FLORIA PENINSULA INTO THE FAR W ATLC. AN UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM SANDY IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS E DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 32N69W DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND CUBA FROM 66W-80W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE NW ATLC N OF 27N W OF 60W AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH ABOUT 180 NM OFF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NW ATLC N OF 32N W OF BERMUDA THEN DIPS S INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 32N55W ALONG 21N53W INTO THE TROPICS TO NEAR 3N47W AND SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. TROPICAL STORM TONY IS TO THE E OF THIS UPPER TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 29N37W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM AFRICA NEAR 10N14W ALONG 14N34W TO 23N43W AND IS BEING AMPLIFIED BY THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THU WHILE MAINTAINING STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SW ATLC AS TROPICAL STORM SANDY IN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MOVES N AND INTENSIFIES TO HURRICANE ON WED. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS E CUBA WED NIGHT AND EMERGE OFF THE N COAST OF CUBA AS TROPICAL STORM EARLY THU CROSSING THE BAHAMAS THROUGH LATE FRI BEFORE MOVING MORE NE OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA LATE SUN AS AN EXTRA TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW