000 AXNT20 KNHC 230601 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON OCT 22 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM SANDY IS CENTERED NEAR 12.9N 78.7W AT 23/0600 UTC OR ABOUT 325 NM S-SW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. SANDY IS NEAR STATIONARY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 75W-80W AND S OF 14N TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 70W-75W. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 16 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN IS CENTERED NEAR 23.0N 51.8W AT 23/0300 OR ABOUT ABOUT 650 NM E-NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING N AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 49W-52W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 15N45W 23N47W TO 28N51W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 15N25W TO 9N26W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM 15N39W TO 10N38W DRIFTING W. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW SURGE OF MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS ALSO BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE DRAWING ANY MOISTURE N AWAY FROM THE WAVE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N17W ALONG 9N23W THEN S OF THE E TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUING ALONG 10N29W THEN S OF THE W TROPICAL WAVE TO 9N41W WITH THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 10N50W TO 9N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 32W-36W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 11W-18W...FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 27W-31W...AND FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 36W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SW MEXICO OVER TEXAS/LOUISIANA GIVING THE GULF NW FLOW ALOFT WITH DRY CONTINENTAL AIR REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE GULF. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF TONIGHT ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH OVER NORTH CAROLINA AND A 1023 MB HIGH OVER WEST VIRGINIA. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA S ACROSS CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 24N E OF 81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 25N TO THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO S OF 24N W OF 94W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. E WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SE GULF TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED. THESE WINDS ARE THE RESULT FROM PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND W ATLC AND TROPICAL STORM SANDY IN THE CARIBBEAN. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT IS TROPICAL STORM SANDY IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ACROSS CUBA OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N83W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 81W-86W...IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 18N W OF 83W...AND FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 78W-81W. ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 60W-78W...S OF 15N BETWEEN 80W-84W...AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. TROPICAL STORM SANDY WILL MOVE N BRIEFLY INTENSIFYING TO HURRICANE BEFORE MOVING ACROSS JAMAICA AS A TROPICAL STORM LATE WED CONTINUING N ACROSS CUBA INTO THE W ATLC ON THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 27N W OF 57W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N57W TO 27N62W WHERE IT DISSIPATES E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N68W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. THE SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN COUPLED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W TO 26N69W ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N TO ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES INTO THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 67W-80W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S OVER THE W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 66W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE NE ATLC DIPS S TO 21N E OF 30W SUPPORTING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N21W TO 29N30W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF THE ABOVE UPPER TROUGH E OF 40W AND IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE AND DISSIPATE BEFORE MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY THROUGH WED. TROPICAL STORM SANDY WILL MOVE ACROSS CUBA INTO THE W ATLC ON THU AND INTO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND N OF THE BAHAMAS ON FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW