000 AXNT20 KNHC 221150 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON OCT 22 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE 1004 MB LOW REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N78W. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 75W-80W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA TODAY. HEAVY RAINS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA... AND EASTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN. THE 1011 MB LOW REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 21N52W. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES A SMALL AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE LOW CENTER. AN UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING THE SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N48W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE 19N-26N BETWEEN 47W-54W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD TO AT 5-10 KT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 14N21W TO 9N22W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM 13N38W TO 9N40W MOVING SW NEAR 10 KT. WEAK LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE BETWEEN 10N-12N. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N16W ALONG 7N19W THEN S OF THE E TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUING ALONG 11N32W TO 10N38W. THE ITCZ IS NOT EVIDENT IN THE ATLC BASIN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 7W-16W INCLUDING THE COAST OF W AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 37W-35W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-13N E OF 19W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SW MEXICO OVER TEXAS GIVING THE GULF NW FLOW ALOFT WITH DRY CONTINENTAL AIR IN PLACE OVER THE GULF. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF TODAY ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH OVER GEORGIA AND A 1024 MB HIGH OVER WEST VIRGINIA. MODERATE RETURN FLOW REMAINS OVER THE NW GULF. THE FRONT IN THE W ATLC DISSIPATES OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N81W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF CUBA E OF 82W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N BETWEEN 91W-94W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SE GULF BY TUE BETWEEN SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE E CONUS AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE CARIBBEAN DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES. CARIBBEAN SEA... SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR THE 1004 MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA ACROSS CUBA OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 18N W OF 83W. ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN ENHANCING SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 16N TO INLAND OVER NW VENEZUELA/NE COLOMBIA BETWEEN 69W-75W AND AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA BETWEEN 67W-69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 65W-84W. THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW WILL DRIFT W THROUGH TODAY THEN DEEPEN...POSSIBLY INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE... AS IT SHIFTS N TO NE TO NEAR JAMAICA BY WED AND INTO E CUBA THU AND N OF THE AREA FRI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 62W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N62W ALONG 27N67W TO 25N73W WHERE IT PULLS UP STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO 24N78W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF THE FRONT TO OVER CUBA AND HISPANIOLA W OF 70W AND WITHIN 75/90 NM NW OF THE FRONT W OF 70W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR PUERTO RICO N TO 32N51W ENHANCING THE ABOVE ACTIVITY. THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1011 MB LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES COVERS THE AREA N OF 10N BETWEEN 44W-60W. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE NE ATLC DIPS S TO 21N E OF 35W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N23W ALONG 30N27W TO 29N32W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 29N37W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC E OF 44W AND IS ANCHORED NEAR 10N32W. A WEAK LOW LEVEL SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE N OF THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 22N34W TO 19N35W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT E TO ALONG 32N55W TO 27N61W ON MON NIGHT THEN NE OUT OF THE AREA BY TUE NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF E CONUS BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH WED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE BETWEEN THIS SURFACE RIDGE AND THE LOW PRESSURE IN THE CARIBBEAN TUE INTO WED. THE LOW WILL EMERGE N OF CUBA ON FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW