000 AXNT20 KNHC 192359 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N31W TO 6N34W MOVING WEST AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS LOW-AMPLITUDE AND COINCIDES WITH A SURGE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH MAXIMUM VALUES NEAR THE AXIS. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 30W-36W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N52W TO 14N52W MOVING W-NW NEAR 15-20 KT. CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AS INDICATED BY AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER. THE WAVE ALSO LIES BENEATH A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH IS PROVIDING A LARGE AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE...WHICH IS HELPING ENHANCE CONVECTION. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WELL TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 44W-50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO JUST SE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 50W-52W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 9N20W TO 9N30W TO 6N35W TO 6N40W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N40W TO 9N46W TO 10N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 18W-27W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 35W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 28N80W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 26N90W TO NE MEXICO AT 24N98W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER S FLORIDA FROM 26N-27N BETWEEN 80W-81W...AND OVER NE MEXICO FROM 25N-26N BETWEEN 97W-98W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE E GULF FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 82W-90W...AND OVER THE W GULF FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 96W-100W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS HELPING TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER S FLORIDA AND W CUBA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS...FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION TO BE PREVALENT OVER NE MEXICO. CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS HAVE RETURNED TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 21N82W TO 13N81W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 80W-90W TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. FURTHER S...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA...PANAMA... AND COSTA RICA DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 17N68W TO 11N68W MOVING W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 60W-73W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N72W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT SHOWERS AND CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO BE PREVALENT OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS HAVING THE LEAST SHOWERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N77W TO 28N80W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLANTIC FROM 23N-32N BETWEEN 80W-90W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER E FROM 32N54W TO 27N58W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A LARGE 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N37W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICS AT 18N52W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION E OF THE CENTER FROM 14N-25N BETWEEN 35W-50W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA