000 AXNT20 KNHC 190550 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH WWWW UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 18N46W TO 10N50W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS DIFFICULT TO TRACK AS IT IS ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N16W ALONG 10N23W TO 7N31W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N35W TO 11N46W THEN RESUMES NEAR 11N51W TO 9N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 43W-50W ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA BETWEEN 6N-10N AND FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 22W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING S OVER THE E GULF FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER MICHIGAN SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 19/0300 EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW OVER S GEORGIA THEN JUST E OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA INTO THE GULF ALONG 27N90W THEN W TO ACROSS S TEXAS NEAR BROWNSVILLE. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 26N82W 24N83W TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N83W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH SW OF MEXICO CITY ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM SW FLORIDA TO S TEXAS BY EARLY SAT THEN DISSIPATE FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST BY EARLY SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E GULF OF MEXICO DIPS S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 76W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 19N80W TO 11N79W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 77W-80W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR 16N71W AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DOT THE AREA S OF 15N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA BETWEEN 70W-79W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 65W/66W FROM THE COAST OF VENEZUELA TO 16N GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF 70W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES INCLUDING PUERTO RICO. THE WEAK TROUGH IN THE E CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN THEN MERGE WITH BROAD LOWER PRESSURE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH IN SW CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE. THE WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL BECOME DIFFUSE NEAR THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS SUN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO BERMUDA PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 31N BETWEEN 68W-80W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N54W ALONG 28N58W TO 27N61W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120/150 NM SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A LARGE ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 20N51W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 10N54W AND N TO 31N45W. THIS UPPER LOW IS MASKING THE TROPICAL WAVE MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND IS GENERATING THE ACTIVITY DESCRIBED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH SECTION ABOVE. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS CENTERED IN THE NE ATLC EXTENDING S TO 20N E OF 25W TO INLAND OVER NW AFRICA. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH JUST N OF THE REGION NEAR 33N36W. A COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM FROM 32N69W TO THE NW BAHAMAS BY EARLY SUN THEN WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC MON AND TUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE CAROLINAS BEHIND THE FRONT MON AND TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW