000 AXNT20 KNHC 170005 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE OCT 16 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL AT 17/0000 UTC IS NEAR 31.4N 63.1W. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM ESE OF BERMUDA. RAFAEL IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST 23 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 969 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA. PRESENTLY NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 31N-33N BETWEEN 62W-64W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 29N-36N BETWEEN 58W-67W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG PRECIPITATION IS FROM 8N-16N BETWEEN 31W-39W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 10N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N22W TO 12N38W TO 9N47W TO 11N56W TO THE COAST OF NE VENEZUELA AT 9N61W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 10W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 41W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA AT 27N80W TO 26N85W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 27N90W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 27N90W TO THE COAST OF TEXAS AT 28N96W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 93W-98W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO AT 20N100W. RIDGING IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 85W. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF. EXPECT...THE TAIL END OF THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE N TO W LOUISIANA IN 24 HOURS WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE SE GULF AND W CUBA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA PRODUCING PREDOMINATELY 10 KT WINDS. THE SURFACE WIND DIRECTION IS BASICALLY INFLUENCED BY THE OUTER CYCLONIC TURNING OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN... AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. THE TRADEWINDS ARE THUS TEMPORARILY DISRUPTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 85W-87W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 10N BETWEEN 74W-86W DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER NW VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 68W-73W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 69W-72W. FURTHER E... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 67W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 85W. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER CUBA. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N65W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N74W TO SOUTH FLORIDA AT 27N80W. HURRICANE RAFAEL IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. A BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 20N-29N BETWEEN 58W-64W. A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N43W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA