000 AXNT20 KNHC 161752 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE OCT 16 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL AT 16/1800 UTC IS NEAR 29.5N 64.4W. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 170 NM TO THE SOUTH OF BERMUDA. RAFAEL IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST 20 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 969 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 63W AND 66W...SCATTERED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 60W AND 66W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 61W AND 66W AND FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 58W AND 60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IN BROAD SURFACE TO LOW-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE. RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE SWELLS THAT ARE BEING GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND THE EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS AND PARTS OF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IT IS LIKELY THAT THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT BULLETINS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W TO THE SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG PRECIPITATION IS IN GENERAL ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 15N BETWEEN 30W AND 47W. THIS PRECIPITATION INCLUDES THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS NEAR THE ITCZ AND THE 37W/38W TROPICAL WAVE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 20N50W 16N49W 12N47W HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE 16/1200 UTC SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS BECAUSE IT IS TOO WEAK TO CONTINUE TO TRACK IT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 53W/54W FROM 10N TO 14N. THIS FEATURE IS ABLE TO BE FOLLOWED CURRENTLY IN VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 52W AND 54W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 10N19W AND 10N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N22W TO 12N35W 10N40W AND 9N51W. AN UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N24W...TO A 29N26W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A 22N37W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A 13N44W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 8N49W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 14W AND 17W IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF SIERRA LEONE AND GUINEA...AND IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF GUINEA AND GUINEA-BISSAU. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG PRECIPITATION IS IN GENERAL ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 15N BETWEEN 30W AND 47W. THIS PRECIPITATION INCLUDES THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS NEAR THE ITCZ AND THE 37W/38W TROPICAL WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 18W AND 30W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO...THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. REACHING THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...HAS PUSHED INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ABOUT 250 NM TO THE EAST OF THE U.S.A. ATLANTIC OCEAN COAST. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO NOW. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST ALONG 28N...ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N92W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 27N92W TO SOUTH TEXAS NEAR 27N99W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM ON SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO SOUTH TEXAS. FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA... INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS THAT TRAVERSED THE AREA THAT IS COVERED BY THE TITLE OF THIS SECTION HAS WEAKENED AND/OR BEEN PUSHED EASTWARD AND ABSORBED BY THE LARGE-SCALE WIND FLOW THAT SURROUNDS HURRICANE RAFAEL. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN PART OF THE TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS IS THE PART THAT HAS BEEN ABSORBED BY THE FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND HURRICANE RAFAEL. A BIT OF THE TAIL END OF WHAT REMAINS OF THE TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS COVERS THE AREA THAT STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. WEAK SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS IN THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE REMNANT OF THE TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS FROM 24 HOURS AGO...ARE HELPING TO FUEL ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W...FROM 19N INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BETWEEN 78W AND 86W...AND FROM THE HONDURAS COAST NEAR 16N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 85W AND 87W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AS A RESULT OF THE DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN THAT IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 32N24W 8N49W UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW TRANSITIONS TO EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY GRADUALLY...FROM EAST TO WEST BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE REST OF THE AREA THAT IS BETWEEN 70W AND THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N/12N...BETWEEN 74W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA JUST OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST...BEYOND 86W/87W IN WEST CENTRAL NICARAGUA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 73W AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N24W...TO A 29N26W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A 22N37W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A 13N44W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 8N49W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS IN GENERAL ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 15N BETWEEN 30W AND 47W. THIS PRECIPITATION INCLUDES THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS NEAR THE ITCZ AND THE 37W/38W TROPICAL WAVE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 540 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM 32N21W 26N31W 20N37W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 20N36W BEYOND 32N41W...TO A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 37N45W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT HURRICANE RAFAEL NEAR...AND WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA IN 24 HOURS NEAR 36.5N 59.1W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 13N TO 23N BETWEEN 38W AND 51W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 35W AND 46W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT