000 AXNT20 KNHC 161201 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE OCT 16 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE RAFAEL IS CENTERED NEAR 27.3N 65.0W AT 16/1200 UTC OR ABOUT 300 NM S OF BERMUDA MOVING N-NE AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER OVER THE NW QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 64W-67W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF LINE FROM 18N60W TO 21N63W...FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 60W-64W... AND FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 60W-68W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... EASTERN MOST TROPICAL WAVE IS EXTENDS FROM 15N35W TO 8N35W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE ENHANCING ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE. WESTERN MOST TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N49W TO 12N47W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A MODERATE SURGE OF MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND REMAINS AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N16W TO 11N20W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG 90N25W TO 9N32W THEN RESUMES NEAR 10N42W ALONG 8N49W 9N56W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N60W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 30W-45W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N-16N BETWEEN 24W-40W AND WITHIN 90/120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 45W-51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 10W-12W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE NE CONUS INTO THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AT 16/0900 UTC N OF TAMPA FLORIDA ALONG 27N86W TO 27N91W WHERE IT PULLS OF STATIONARY TO OVER S TEXAS NEAR BETWEEN CORPUS CHRISTI AND BROWNSVILLE. THIS IS A RELATIVELY DRY FRONT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 20N FROM ACROSS MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE W TIP OF CUBA INTO THE SE GULF TO NEAR 25N86W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 81W-86W INCLUDING THE COAST OF CUBA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH OVER OHIO. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WHILE SINKING S ACROSS E GULF REACHING FROM NEAR FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS BY THIS EVENING WHERE IT WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY THU AND REACH FROM CEDAR KEY FLORIDA TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS FRI MORNING AND WEAKEN FROM FORT MYERS TO CORPUS CHRISTI SAT MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS AN AXIS ALONG 20N FROM ACROSS MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN TO 85W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N76W TO OVER E HONDURAS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N83W ACROSS THE W TIP OF CUBA INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-22N BETWEEN 80W-83W AND S OF 21N TO INLAND OVER HONDURAS BETWEEN 85W AND THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE RAFAEL COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N63W OVER THE ABC ISLANDS TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA NEAR 11N68W ASSOCIATED WITH FEEDER BANDS OF HURRICANE RAFAEL. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM NEAR 13N76W ALONG 11N81W TO OVER NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 15N BETWEEN 71W-82W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. HURRICANE RAFAEL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE N AND AWAY FROM THE CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE PRIMARY CONCERN AGAIN THIS MORNING IS HURRICANE RAFAEL BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND BERMUDA...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE NE CONUS INTO THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N76W TO 24N75W THEN NARROWS AS IT ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N76W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION AT 16/0900 UTC THROUGH 32N77W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM E OF THE FRONT TO THE FLORIDA COAST. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE RAFAEL AND COVERING THE AREA BETWEEN 50W-70W AND PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE RAFAEL. A NARROWING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC NEAR 32N25W ALONG 22N38W TO THE BASE NEAR 10N47W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN MOST TROPICAL WAVE. THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. HURRICANE RAFAEL WILL BE ABOUT 120 NM E-SE OF BERMUDA THIS EVENING BEFORE ACCELERATING NE AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE FROM JUST E OF BERMUDA TO PALM BEACH FLORIDA WED NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW WATERS FRI AND EXTEND FROM 32N73W TO HOBE SOUND FLORIDA ON SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW