000 AXNT20 KNHC 160001 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON OCT 15 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL IS CENTERED NEAR 24.5N 65.7W AT 16/0000 UTC OR ABOUT 475 NM S OF BERMUDA. RAFAEL IS MOVING N AT 9 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE STORM CENTER FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 63W-67W. A FEEDER BAND CONTINUES TO BRING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM THE NE CARIBBEAN NORTHWARD FROM 15N-24N BETWEEN 59W-65W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N32W TO 10N33W MOVING WEST AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE VALUES PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 26W-35W. CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N46W TO 11N43W MOVING WEST AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE LIES JUST WEST OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 39W-42W. ANY OTHER CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE IS MORE RELATED TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SENEGAL AT 14N17W TO 10N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 10N20W CONTINUING ALONG 10N31W 11N42W 10N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-11N BETWEEN 21W-24W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 35W-41W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 45W-50W...AND FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 49W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 31N84W TO 29N91W 29N97W. THE FRONT IS MAINLY DEFINES A DIFFERENCE IN DEWPOINT WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS TO THE NORTH OF THE AXIS. DUE TO A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS ALOFT...ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS MOVING QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST AND IS CURRENTLY ALONG 79W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW GULF ALONG 24N94W TO 21N94W SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE EXTREME SE GULF. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH BEFORE DISSIPATING. A SECOND FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE BASIN LATER IN THE WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE NW CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT WRAPPING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AROUND A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO HONDURAS. SOME MODERATE MOISTURE IS AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN NICARAGUA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT DUE TO MORE DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND A SECOND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NE CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH A FEEDER RAIN BAND OF WHAT IS NOW HURRICANE RAFAEL. THE CONTINUED RAINFALL OVER THESE AREAS POSES THE RISK FOR SEVERE FLOODING. UNFORTUNATELY...RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING COVERS THE FAR WESTERN ATLC ALONG 79W. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 29N75W TO 26N76W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. HURRICANE RAFAEL SPINS TO THE EAST PROVIDING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...OUTFLOW FROM RAFAEL IS TO THE EAST ALONG 57W SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 38N51W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AZORES ISLANDS INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 26N34W TO 8N47W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS HELPING ENHANCE CONVECTION NEAR BOTH THE ITCZ AND TWO TROPICAL WAVES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 20W. IT SUPPORTS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AROUND A 1019 MB HIGH BETWEEN THE AZORES AND THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON