000 AXNT20 KNHC 130557 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL IS CENTERED NEAR 15.6N 63.6W AT 13/0600 UTC OR ABOUT 145 NM SSE OF SAINT CROIX MOVING NW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ISOLATED STRONG AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-22N BETWEEN 53W-64W. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATTY IS CENTERED NEAR 25.4N 72.1W AT 13/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 230 NM ENE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS REMAINING STATIONARY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 69W-73W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N30W TO 17N29W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. BROAD AND WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS AS IT COINCIDES WITH MAXIMUM MOISTURE VALUES IN RECENT TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM 08N-15N BETWEEN 27W-34W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-17N BETWEEN 26W-31W AND IS LIKELY ENHANCED DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N33W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO 10N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N20W TO 08N30W TO 09N45W TO 08N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-10N BETWEEN 22W-29W...AND FROM 07N-12N BETWEEN 32W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF PROVIDING NW TO N FLOW ALOFT WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE RIDGE INFLUENCES THE ENTIRE GULF BASIN FOCUSED ON A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N86W. CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE MEXICO COAST FROM 18N-22N. SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NE TO E WINDS EXPECTED E OF 90W AND E TO SE WINDS EXPECTED W OF 90W. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC TO OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 22N79W TO 15N85W. NW OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WHICH IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL STABLE CONDITION ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM 20N75W TO 14N84W. MID-LEVEL LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS EASTERN CUBA...THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF JAMAICA...AND AN AREA FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 80W-84W. ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN...THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC REGION ALONG 10N AND IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 09N-12N BETWEEN 72W-81W...INCLUDING NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND AN AREA OVER CENTRAL PANAMA AND THE PANAMA CANAL. FINALLY... TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND LIES ON THE SE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 20N69W. THIS LOW IS PROVIDING A WEAKNESS BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL RIDGES...ONE W OF 76W...THE OTHER E OF 61W...FOR RAFAEL TO TRACK ON AN OVERALL N-NW TRACK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 10N-22N BETWEEN 53W-64W...INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N72W SW TO 22N79W AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. VERY DRY AIR ALOFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WHICH IS RESULTING IN MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 76W. A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE HOWEVER OCCURRING WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 30N76W TO 24N80W... INCLUDING THE NW BAHAMAS. TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC...TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATTY CONTINUES TO ANCHOR A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE TROUGHING BETWEEN 64W-76W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 74W-77W TO THE SW OF PATTY...WHILE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH PATTY REMAINDER MOSTLY IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS AND CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS COVER THE AREA WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25N72W TO BEYOND 32N64W. SE OF PATTY...CONVECTION FROM TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL CONTINUES TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE ATLC WATERS FROM 10N-22N BETWEEN 53W-64W. RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE ATLC WATERS LATE SATURDAY AND CONTINUE ON A N-NW TRACK THROUGH LATE MONDAY. ELSEWHERE THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N41W. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERED NEAR 23N33W AND IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 28W-32W...AND FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 30W-37W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN