000 AXNT20 KNHC 091130 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE OCT 09 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N45W TO 9N43W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 9N43W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 40W-47W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 8N20W TO 6N30W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS CONTINUES FROM 6N30W TO 8N40W TO 9N44W TO THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 5N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 20W-35W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 37W-40W...AND FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 47W-50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 50W-58W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0900 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA AT 29N81W TO 25N90W TO 23N96W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N96W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO FROM 18N-25N BETWEEN 94W-97W. THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT IS MOSTLY VOID OF CONVECTION. 10-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT WHILE 10 KT EASTERLY WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE UNITED STATES...N MEXICO...AND THE GULF N OF 25N WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N101W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS LOW IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE SW GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER THE S GULF S OF 23N. CARIBBEAN SEA... A LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH PREDOMINATELY 10-15 KT EASTERLY WINDS. STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AT 13N83W TO PANAMA AT 9N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 76W-83W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 88W-90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 78W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 15N70W ENHANCING THE SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT SIMILAR CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... 10 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE ALONG THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 26N W OF 74W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N74W TO AN EMBEDDED 1011 MB LOW AT 26N75W TO 23N73W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-32N BETWEEN 70W-74W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N23W TO 27N30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A LARGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST AND DRY AIR IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 12N E OF 38W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 22N55W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 55W-60W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA