000 AXNT20 KNHC 090538 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE OCT 09 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N43W TO 8N41W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 8N41W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE WAVE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 35W-47W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 15N17W TO 9N28W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS CONTINUES FROM 9N28W TO 7N30W TO 8N41W TO THE COAST OF SURINAME NEAR 6N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 31W-37W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 47W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0300 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA AT 29N81W TO 26N90W TO 23N96W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N96W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 94W-97W. THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT IS MOSTLY VOID OF CONVECTION. 10-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT WHILE 10 KT EASTERLY WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE UNITED STATES...N MEXICO...AND THE GULF N OF 25N WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N101W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS LOW IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE SW GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO DIP TO S FLORIDA WHILE THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT RETROGRADES BACK TO S TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE S GULF...IN THE WARM SECTOR S OF THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH PREDOMINATELY 10-15 KT EASTERLY WINDS. STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AT 14N83W TO PANAMA AT 9N81W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 75W-84W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NW NICARAGUA...W HONDURAS...AND EL SALVADOR... FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 87W-90W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 60W-64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE...OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO... HISPANIOLA...E CUBA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...GUATEMALA ...NICARAGUA...AND COSTA RICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 78W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 15N70W ENHANCING THE SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT SIMILAR CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... 10 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE ALONG THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 26N W OF 74W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 29N74W TO 22N77W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 70W-74W. THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N23W TO 28N30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A LARGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST AND DRY AIR IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 12N E OF 38W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 22N55W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 55W-60W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA