000 AXNT20 KNHC 071747 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN OCT 07 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 9N ALONG THE WAVE. THIS SURFACE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER SHOWED UP IN THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA. NEARBY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE MORE RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH THAN TO THE WAVE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS NEAR HAITI SIX HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. IT WAS DROPPED FROM THE SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS FOR 07/1200 UTC. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N. THIS POSITION IS BASED ON THE SUNY-ALBANY GFS WAVE DIAGNOSTICS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 76W AND 82W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH THAN TO THIS TROPICAL WAVE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL NEAR 13N17W TO 10N20W 8N25W...THROUGH THE 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE 30W/31W TROPICAL WAVE...TO 8N40W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N40W TO 7N47W AND 7N54W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 28W AND 31W AND FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 50W AND 58W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 10N TO THE EAST OF 44W AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 32W AND 34W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...CONTINUING INTO THE WATERS OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE 24-HOUR TOTAL RAINFALL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 07/1200 UTC FOR VERACRUZ MEXICO WAS 1.55 INCHES. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA ALONG 22N95W 18N93W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 88W AND 90W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE GULF WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 90W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO 28N90W IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF...TO THE LOWER VALLEY OF TEXAS... NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND 27N100W INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE SHOWS UP IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE FRONT. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITH THE 30N85W 26N97W COLD FRONT... THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO 28N83W 20N96W IN 24 HOURS. FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 22N71W...JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. ONE SURFACE TROUGH THAT SHOWED UP IN THE 07/0900 UTC SCATTEROMETER DATA IS ALONG 24N65W 22N68W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH THAT COMES FROM THE SAME SCATTEROMETER DATA IS ALONG 26N62W 22N64W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N57W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N55W...TO THE CYCLONIC CENTER...TO 17N60W TO 15N64W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE EAST OF 80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N TO 26N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE EAST OF 70W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HEAVY RAIN MAY FALL ACROSS PARTS OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... AND THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N. THIS POSITION IS BASED ON THE SUNY-ALBANY GFS WAVE DIAGNOSTICS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 76W AND 82W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH THAN TO THIS TROPICAL WAVE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N74W...TO 10N80W JUST TO THE NORTH OF PANAMA...BEYOND NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 83W IN WESTERN PANAMA AND 88W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 76W AND 82W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 35N39W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 30N46W. THIS FEATURE IS PART OF A LARGER-SCALE DEEP LAYER TROUGH...THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N23W TO 31N24W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N24W TO 27N30W 23N40W 21N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 37W AND 48W...AND WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N23W 29N26W 24N32W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 50W AND 75W. A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 35N54W. A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 34N69W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N14W TO 28N21W AND 22N34W. PLEASE REFER TO THE ATLANTIC HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITH THE 24N35W 21N48W STATIONARY FRONT. 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST IN 24 HOURS FROM 10N TO 20N TO THE EAST OF 50W...AND THEN FROM 10N TO 17N TO THE EAST OF 55W AT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT