000 AXNT20 KNHC 010622 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON OCT 01 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY VALID THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NADINE AT 01/0300 UTC IS NEAR 36.7N 39.4W. NADINE IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD 6 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 75 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 90 KNOTS. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 NM/55 KM FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 NM/205 KM FROM THE CENTER. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY... MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 35N TO 37N BETWEEN 38W AND 41W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N26W 14N28W... TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 10N29W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 24W AND 30W...AND FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN 30W AND 36W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N40W 16N43W 11N45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N38W 15N43W 9N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ALSO IS FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 48W...POSSIBLY RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 13N17W 13N24W 9N30W 7N40W 6N44W 6N48W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N48W TO 7N53W...AND THE GUYANA/SURINAME BORDER NEAR 6N57W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 8N24W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 48W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.A.... AND THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO 22N96W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 22N96W TO 21N98W AND 26N101W IN MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N88W 25N90W 22N94W 20N96W...AND IN MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 93W AND 102W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 16N86W...ALONG THE HONDURAS COAST. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 12N TO CUBA NEAR 22N BETWEEN 80W AND 92W IN MEXICO. EARLIER SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS OCCURRING IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE WATERS WITHIN 70 NM OF THE COAST FROM 10N TO 12N FOR PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ALSO IS FROM 14N TO CUBA BETWEEN 79W AND 82W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N47W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 18N52W TO 10N55W TO NORTHEASTERN GUYANA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 70W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE EAST OF 66W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING FROM 16N TO 21N IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA BETWEEN 75W AND 78W. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION ENCOMPASSES ALL OF JAMAICA AND THE JAMAICA CHANNEL...SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND THE WATERS THAT AREA BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N71W...THROUGH THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...TO 20N73W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...11N80W... BEYOND NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 9N72.5W ALONG THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN COLOMBIA FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W...SCATTERED STRONG IN THE WATERS WITHIN 70 NM OF THE COAST FROM 10N TO 12N FOR PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 66W AND 75W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N80W 33N78W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTRAL U.S.A. TO GULF OF MEXICO DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N47W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 18N52W TO 10N55W TO NORTHEASTERN GUYANA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 55W AND 70W...AND FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 46W AND 49W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N71W...THROUGH THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...TO 20N73W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 72W AND 73W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 70W. THE 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 01/0000 UTC FOR BERMUDA WAS 0.80 OF AN INCH. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2... FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 13N TO 20N TO THE EAST OF 40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT