000 AXNT20 KNHC 270101 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED SEP 26 2012 CORRECTED FOR DATE TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM NADINE IS CENTERED NEAR 30.2N 30.8W AT 26/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 505 NM SSW OF THE AZORES MOVING SSW AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 29N-33N BETWEEN 27W-33W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N28W TO 19N26W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WELL WITH A BROAD 700 MB TROUGH NOTED IN GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE BETWEEN 22W-32W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM FROM 10N-19N BETWEEN 19W-25W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 21W-25W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N76W TO 17N73W MOVING W AT 10 KT. THIS WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A SHARPER...MORE DEFINED 700 MB TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 74W AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 27N76W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN REMAIN ELEVATED AS THE WAVE MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH RESULTANT ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 70W-76W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO OCCURRING NORTH OF THE WAVE AXIS ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA THIS EVENING. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO 09N28W TO 08N38W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N38W TO 09N48W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 09W-14W...AND FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 25W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 28N91W TO A BASE IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF NEAR 22N88W. WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES FAIRLY DRY AIR ALOFT NE OF THE TROUGH AXIS...A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 23N92W TO 27N90W CONTINUES TO PROVIDE LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING MAINLY EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 85W-92W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THIS EVENING IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING...HOWEVER DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE GENERATED BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL AND CONTINUES TO COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF...INCLUDING THE FLORID PENINSULA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY S OF 28N WITH MORE INTENSE CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS THE FLORIDA AND YUCATAN PENINSULAS. LOOKING AHEAD...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK HOLDS RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE GULF AS SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST ANCHOR TO THE NORTH OVER THE SE CONUS AND PROVIDE THE GULF WITH MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE BREEZE CONDITIONS. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS...ONE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE OTHER OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IN THE VICINITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 12N76W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED OVER MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA THIS EVENING WHICH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF 82W...INCLUDING MUCH OF INLAND CENTRAL AMERICA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS BEGINNING TO ENTER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND LIES ALONG 75W AND COINCIDES WITH A MID-LEVEL 700 MB TROUGH. LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO GENERATE AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 70W-76W. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SPREADS NORTHWARD AS CONVECTION HAS BLOSSOMED THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...EASTERN CUBA...AND JAMAICA. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL DOMINATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... MOST OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NORTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 24N70W. NORTH OF THIS CIRCULATION...SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A VERY WEAK STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N71W TO 29N74W WHICH TRANSITIONS TO A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 61W-81W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WHILE ORGANIZATION OF ACTIVITY ACROSS THIS AREA LACKS ANY SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...IT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AN AREA PRONE TO BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING IN BETWEEN SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE SE CONUS AND THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 25N. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N47W THAT EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SW TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 16N60W. LOCATED SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS...A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE ANALYZED S OF 25N BETWEEN 45W-60W. THE FIRST SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 19N56W TO 23N50W AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE THE MORE ACTIVE CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 47W-58W. THE OTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED DIRECTLY SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN FEATURE ANALYZED FROM 13N57W TO 16N52W. THIS WEAKER TROUGH AXIS IS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 47W-56W. FINALLY...TROPICAL STORM NADINE CONTINUES TO SPIN IN THE VICINITY OF 30N30W WITH CYCLONIC WIND INFLUENCE REACHING SOUTHWARD TO 25N BETWEEN 25W-36W. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO A 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 22N40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN