000 AXNT20 KNHC 191742 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED SEP 19 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE AT 19/1800 UTC IS NEAR 37.1N 32.2W. NADINE IS ABOUT 145 NM/270 KM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF FLORES IN THE AZORES. NADINE IS STATIONARY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. THE PORTUGUESE WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAO MIGUEL AND SANTA MARIA IN THE AZORES. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240 NM/445 KM FROM THE CENTER. CORVO IN THE AZORES REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 42 MPH...68 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 58 MPH...93 KM/H...EARLIER THIS MORNING. SWELLS GENERATED BY NADINE WILL AFFECT THE AZORES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IT IS LIKELY THAT THESE SWELLS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT BULLETINS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY...MIATCPAT4/ WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN DECLINING GRADUALLY...AND IT IS BECOMING MORE AND MORE REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W/22W TO THE SOUTH OF 21N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 19W...AND FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 20W AND 25W...INCLUDING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W TO THE SOUTH OF 19N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N45W 15N50W 10N54W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS NEAR 21N72W...ACROSS HAITI TO 17N73W TO 12N74W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 17N70W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W AND FROM 19N TO 21N TO THE EAST OF 78W COVERING SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND COASTAL WATERS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER OF SENEGAL AND MAURITANIA NEAR 16N16W TO 10N21W 5N30W AND 4N33W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N33W TO 45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 25W...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 50W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 19N51W 14N56W 7N57W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 17N53W 12N55W 6N59W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.A. AND THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS PART COLD FROM COASTAL SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N84W...AND PART STATIONARY FROM 27N84W TO 23N90W INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF 29N87W 25N91W 23N98W...AND FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 91W AND 94W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS TO A 1019 MB INLAND MEXICO HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N99W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 80W/81W FROM 22N IN CUBA TO PANAMA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 76W AND 85W. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION IS REACHING EASTERN NICARAGUA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 9N81W IN PANAMA...BEYOND NORTH CENTRAL COSTA RICA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES JUST THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...EXTENDING FROM A 32N52W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 22N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 45W AND 56W...AND FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 53W AND 61W. A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N51W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 27N51W AND 22N54W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 17N53W 12N55W 6N59W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF TRINIDAD... HISPANIOLA...26N74W BEYOND 32N73W. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22.5N TO 23.5N BETWEEN 69W AND 70W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ON TOP OF BERMUDA TO 26N70W... TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N82W. A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 24N41W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM NADINE. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 32.5N57W AT 48 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD. A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO BE ALONG 36W/37W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N ALSO IN 48 HOURS. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 53W AND 55W... AND FROM 13N TO 18N TO THE EAST OF 41W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT