000 AXNT20 KNHC 152357 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NADINE AT 15/2100 UTC IS NEAR 30.8N 48.2W...OR ABOUT 980 MI E OF BERMUDA OR ABOUT 1305 MI WSW OF THE AZORES. NADINE IS MOVING EAST AT 15 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 70 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 85 KNOTS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 NM FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 NM. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY...MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY E OF THE CENTER FROM 28N-33N BETWEEN 43W-49W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54/55W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KNOTS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 50W-56W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 50W-58W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 25W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 24W-27W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 22W-28W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF MAURITANIA AT 18N16W TO 7N26W TO 7N30W TO 8N37W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N37W TO 12N50W TO 10N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 28W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO FROM HOUSTON TEXAS TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER S FROM 26N94W TO 22N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 90W-96W...AND FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 95W-98W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...WEST CUBA...AND THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28N88W ASSISTING THE CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA AND THE N GULF. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA ...JAMAICA...AND CUBA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 81W-87W. FURTHER S... SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 76W-86W. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N84W ASSISTING THE CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N68W INFLUENCING THE CONVECTION OVER PUERTO RICO AND AND HISPANIOLA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A TROPICAL WAVE TO INTRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES E OF 64W. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N66W MOVING E. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N64W TO THE LOW CENTER TO 24N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE TROUGH. A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 23N63W. ANOTHER 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 24N38W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N67W SUPPORTING THE W ATLANTIC LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA