000 AXNT20 KNHC 141751 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE AT 14/1500 UTC IS NEAR 28.0N 53.5W. NADINE IS MOVING NORTHWARD 14 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 60 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 75 KNOTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT NADINE MAY BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 NM/370 KM FROM THE CENTER. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY...MIATCPAT4/ WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A 70 NM RADIUS OF 29N54W...THAT MEANS WITHIN 80 TO 120 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT FROM THE CENTER. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 21N BETWEEN 40W AND 58W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W TO THE SOUTH OF 15N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN EARLIER SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG HAVE WARMED AND ONLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE REMNANT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 44W AND 50W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL MAURITANIA NEAR 19N16W TO 12N20W AND 7N30W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N30W TO 6N33W 8N38W AND 9N41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 600 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE 6N13W 3N24W...THE EQUATOR ALONG 36W...6N45W...AND FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 48W AND 55W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 180 NM TO THE NORTH OF 8N19W 4N30W 9N39W...AND WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N BETWEEN 48W AND 55W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS TROUGH IS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR A COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE TEXAS GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N90W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N99W ALONG THE TEXAS/ MEXICO BORDER. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO BEYOND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 29N94W TO 25N90W AND 21N90W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 14/1200 UTC FOR MONTERREY MEXICO IS 1.45 INCHES. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 88W. SIMILAR PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 73W AND 80W. THIS PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE SURFACE TROUGH... THAT PASSES THROUGH 27N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 24N76W IN THE BAHAMAS...TO THE SOUTH OF ANDROS ISLAND...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N87W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 25N64W...ACROSS PUERTO RICO...TO 15N67W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE VENEZUELA COAST ALONG 69W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF 75W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF 75W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 14/1200 UTC FOR SAINT THOMAS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IS 0.51 INCHES...AND 0.18 INCHES FOR SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO VENEZUELA COAST TROUGH. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N74W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 8N80W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 8N87W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 81W AND 84W...IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 68W AND 73W STARTING AT 36 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 35N70W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 28N69W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 62W AND 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N68W 27N70W...TO 24N76W IN THE BAHAMAS...TO THE SOUTH OF ANDROS ISLAND...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N87W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N67W 26N69W 25N74W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 14/1200 UTC FOR BERMUDA IS 0.36 INCHES. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 25N64W...ACROSS PUERTO RICO...TO 15N67W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE VENEZUELA COAST ALONG 69W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF 75W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF 75W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 14/1200 UTC FOR SAINT THOMAS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IS 0.51 INCHES... AND 0.18 INCHES FOR SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 35N28W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 19N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 43W. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N25W TO 30N26W AND 27N30W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 19W AND 40W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM NADINE. ALSO EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE EAST OF 40W STARTING AT 18 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AT 48 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE EAST OF 38W WITH THAT FEATURE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT