000 AXNT20 KNHC 140543 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM NADINE IS CENTERED NEAR 25.0N 53.7W 14/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 655 NM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 730 NM SE OF BERMUDA MOVING NNW AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED/ NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER OVER THE NW QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 51W-56W...WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 24N47W TO 27N51W...AND WITHIN 45/60 NM OF LINE FROM 21N77W TO 24N49W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS SE OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE EXTENDING FROM 14N44W THROUGH A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 9N41W TO 7N40W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N-16N BETWEEN 41W-48W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W CONTINUING ALONG 8N20W TO 9N30W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS CONTINUING TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 10N38W THEN RESUMES W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N45W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N54W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 16W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA AND WITHIN 180/200 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ BETWEEN 26W-34W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 46W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER TENNESSEE EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH S OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER THE W GULF WHILE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE E GULF. THIS IS GIVING MOST OF THE GULF UNSETTLED WEATHER TONIGHT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE E GULF FROM 25N-29N E OF 88W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER THE W GULF FROM 22N-29N W OF 93W. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM THE W ATLC NEAR 24N80W ALONG 24N82W TO 23N87W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N E OF 87W TO OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH OVER VIRGINIA. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATING ON FRI. OTHERWISE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC DOMINATES THE N CARIBBEAN WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE SW WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 21N ACROSS W CUBA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BETWEEN 81W-87W...AND OVER HAITI AND WITHIN 30 NM ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ALONG 10N ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N BETWEEN 73W-83W AND FROM 12N-15N W OF 82W TO INLAND OVER NICARAGUA. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS CENTERED JUST N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/PUERTO RICO EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CARIBBEAN TO THE ABC ISLANDS COVERING THE CARIBBEAN E OF 71W. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE BASIN WITH LOCALLY FRESH TRADES IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT REMAINS TROPICAL STORM NADINE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE W ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH OVER TENNESSEE. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM A STATIONARY BOUNDARY N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N61W ALONG 29N68W THROUGH THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 23N76W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH N OF 28N AND S OF 25N W OF 78W TO OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND CUBA. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS CENTERED JUST N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/PUERTO RICO EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND NNE TO NEAR 27N62W. BROAD UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE NE ATLC COVERING THE AREA N OF 24N BETWEEN 15W-35W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 28W-37W. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREA INTO THE WEEKEND BECOMING DIFFUSE BY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ITS WAKE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TROPICAL STORM NADINE WILL MOVE N THROUGH SAT THEN TURN TOWARD THE NE OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW